036 FXUS63 KIND 152056 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 356 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 .UPDATE... The Synopsis, Near Term, Short Term, and Aviation sections have been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 356 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 High pressure will begin to build into the area tonight as a strong low pressure system departs the Great Lakes. This high will dominate the week and keep the weather dry through Friday. An elongated frontal system may bring showers back to the area for the coming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 356 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 Winds will remain fairly strong and gusty for the next few hours still, but should slowly begin to decrease. Will continue the wind advisory through 7 PM as a result. Clouds have begun to break up and become more cellular/convective in nature, and expect these to dissipate this evening in typical diurnal fashion. Should be clear to mostly clear throughout the night. Although winds will stay up somewhat, they will gradually be decreasing throughout the night. Blend min temps look slightly too warm compared to expected dewpoints, and have made adjustments as such. && .SHORT TERM /Monday through Monday Night/... Issued at 356 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 High pressure will be firmly in control by Monday. Although a broad upper level wave will skirt just north of the area, a very dry column will prevent any precipitation or even much in the way of cloud cover. Blend temps again look a bit too warm compared to low level thermal progs and have made minor adjustments here as well. Should see upper 40s to mid 50s across the area tomorrow which compares well to upstream numbers, followed by a night in the low to mid 30s. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/... Issued at 240 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 Dry column and subsidence, per model time sections, as surface high pressure builds in, will allow for little cloud cover through midweek. This will result in a chilly period Tuesday and Wednesday. Thermals support below normal temperatures with afternoon highs only in the 40s Tuesday and middle 40s to lower 50s Wednesday. With 850 millibar temperatures 2 to 6 degrees below zero Celsius, decoupling and clear skies, Tuesday night will be the coldest night of the week with a potential for a hard freeze. After that, a warm front will move across Wednesday and Wednesday night. Southerly flow in the wake of this feature and ahead of a cold front will result in much warmer temperatures. Low level thermals support above normal temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s by Thursday. Clouds will be increasing late in the week and could also see a few showers by Saturday, over northern sections and as the cold front moves nearby. Models gaining confidence that zonal and then southwest flow aloft will cause the eastern part of the front to stall over northern Indiana. As it does, a wave or two will move along the front this weekend and eventually, the western part of the front will move through as a cold front around Sunday. Model blend PoPs show a trend of low chances mainly north through Saturday evening and then slightly higher chances and over all counties Sunday. This trend looks good assuming timing and location of the initial stalled front and eventual cold front are good. But that assumption lends lowered confidence in timing and coverage of weekend PoPs. This also makes temperature forecasts problematic for next weekend depending on exactly where the initial front hangs out and later the timing of the second one. For now will accept the model blend which keeps the initial front north of the area. This would result in well above normal temperatures for all of central Indiana Saturday. Expected, southerly flow should offset increase in clouds and convection and support highs in the upper 50s to the middle 60s. The confidence temperatures is the lower on Sunday, especially over northwestern half as the front may be through that area earlier. That said, models trending to keep the front to the northwest at least through early afternoon, so highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s look good for now. If the front, starts trending faster, that may be too ambitious. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 15/21Z TAF Update/... Issued at 356 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 No significant changes necessary. Previous discussion follows. Issued at 1237 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 IMPACTS: MVFR ceilings will persist for another couple of hours at IND/LAF. Otherwise, the most significant impact is wind gusts of 34-41KT from 260-280 at all sites through the afternoon. DISCUSSION: MVFR cloud in the wake of the cold front is on its way out, and conditions should return to VFR at all sites by 20Z. A very strong surface pressure gradient and subsidence with cold advection is helping to bring strong winds to the surface today. Most sites sustained winds will be roughly 20-30KT with gusts 35-40KT give or take a few KT through the afternoon, although a general weakening trend should be observed late in the day. Gusts will die down in typical diurnal fashion this evening, although sustained winds appear likely to remain around 10-15KT much of the overnight before dropping off late. CONFIDENCE: High confidence for VFR conditions by 20Z. Extremely high confidence for continued strong gusty winds throughout the day. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for INZ021-028>031- 035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Nield NEAR TERM...Nield SHORT TERM...Nield LONG TERM...MK AVIATION...Nield