823 FXUS64 KBRO 151718 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1118 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2020 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...The cold front will be working into the RGV into this afternoon with gusty northerly winds into early this evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over the next couple of hours with brief downpours. MVFR ceilings may persist into early afternoon before VFR conditions return. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 532 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2020/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION...A cold front is moving closer this morning, and is just upstream of the CWA now. Starting to see some pre-dawn fog forming along with lower ceilings. Conditions could drop to IFR and even LIFR for a few hours this morning and could be problematic for aviation interests. The front will make its way to the Lower Valley and offshore by mid-day. Winds will shift to moderate to breezy north to northeast behind the front. Scattered showers and rumbles of thunder will be possible from late morning to late afternoon. Conditions will be mainly VFR once fog and low ceilings clear out with the frontal passage, but nearby showers could briefly drop ceiling and visibility conditions to MVFR. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): The main action in the short term will be an approaching cold front that will move through the area and offshore today. The front is upstream over south central Texas and should be entering the northern ranchlands and brush country around daybreak. That leaves room yet for some fog formation over the next few hours. The front should reach Brownsville around noon with north winds becoming moderate to breezy. Showers will develop near the coast, with rumbles of thunder possible through the afternoon. The front should be mostly through the area and offshore by sunset. The front will impact high temperatures today by keeping them down in the lower to mid 80s across the area. A coastal flood advisory has been posted for water run-up on the beaches this afternoon. Lower relative humidity values will develop over the upper RGV this afternoon behind the front. Conditions will be marginal, but sufficient for a fire danger statement. Weather tonight will be cooler, with low temperatures ranging from around 50 across the north to the mid 60s for the lower RGV under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. The cooler trend will continue on Monday with high temps in the mid 70s to the lower 80s under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Minor coastal flooding may again be a concern. LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday): A very mild, and rather pleasantly warm November will continue through the long term period. As mid level ridging centers over South Texas and northern Mexico, the rest of the workweek will remain dry, with only a slight chance of showers returning early next weekend as tropical moisture is advected into the region. Above average temperatures can be expected each day, with highs generally in the lower 80s and lows in the 50s and lower 60s through mid week. There will be a slight warming trend, bringing highs into the lower to mid 80s and lows will only drop into the lower 60s for the latter half of the week. Astronomical tides will continue to be on the rise this week, and with a persistent, moderate east-northeasterly fetch across the northern Gulf through mid week, minor coastal flooding may be an issue through the week. MARINE: Now through Monday...Small craft advisory conditions are set to commence at 10 AM as a cold front sweeps offshore. It should be mainly a wind event as northeast winds will increase to between 20 and 25 knots with a few gusts to 30 knots. Seas will increase too, but will be marginally at criteria for a few hours this evening and early tonight. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop as the front moves through with the best chances between about noon and 6 PM. Conditions will improve on Monday with moderate northeast winds and low to moderate seas. Monday Night through Saturday...Behind Sunday's cold front, moderate east-northeasterly winds will keep seas generally 3 to 5 feet through Tuesday...before seas continue to build into next weekend due to the persistent moderate east-northeasterly winds across the northern Gulf. Small craft should exercise caution early next week on the Gulf waters, and Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed by mid week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 64 78 64 77 / 10 10 0 0 BROWNSVILLE 65 80 64 79 / 10 10 10 10 HARLINGEN 61 80 61 79 / 10 10 0 0 MCALLEN 59 81 59 81 / 10 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 57 81 56 81 / 10 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 71 75 71 76 / 10 10 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for TXZ256- 257-351. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ130-132- 135. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for GMZ150-155- 170-175. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 56-Hallman...Aviation