278 FXUS65 KABQ 151119 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 419 AM MST Sun Nov 15 2020 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Strong west to northwest winds aloft combined with a deepening lee side surface trough will result in gusts btw 25 and 35kts across eastern NM today. Wind speeds will decrease after sunset. Otherwise, dry and mostly clear skies will be the rule. 34 && .PREV DISCUSSION...320 AM MST Sun Nov 15 2020... .SYNOPSIS... Although winds will be lighter today, localized critical fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon along the Interstate 40 corridor through east central New Mexico. Otherwise, dry weather with a warming trend is expected through Thursday. Highs may reach near record values Wednesday and Thursday when afternoon breezes resume. Cooler and possibly wetter weather is suggested by forecast models for the end of this week. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)... Brisk west to northwest flow aloft will persist over the Land of Enchantment today. Breezy to windy conditions will be felt across the Sangre de Cristo, Sandia and Manzano Mountains as well as along portions of eastern NM, roughly along the I-40 corridor east of KCQC. It will certainly not be as windy as yesterday, but wouldn't be surprised if KCQC hit wind advisory criteria for an hour or two. Since it should be brief and localized to that location, will not issue any wind advisories attm. Otherwise, near normal temps will be the rule today. Clear skies with light winds are expected for tonight, allowing for excellent radiational cooling once again. Although, temps may not be quite as chilly as this morning. On Monday, upper level ridging will build over the Desert Southwest. Temperatures will warm back above normal by 5 to 12 degrees for all locations, but these temps will still remain several degrees shy of records. Less wind is expected for the east as well. 34 LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... A ridge of high pressure will pass over New Mexico Tuesday, with zonal flow setting up for the mid to late week period. High temperatures will warm to above average, and by Wednesday and Thursday, could challenge some of the record values for those days. Westerly breezes will resume by midweek, but dry weather continues. Wednesday and Thursday could see some low level moisture sneak into southeast and far east central New Mexico, with potential for a brief period of predawn and post sunrise low clouds. The operational GFS and ECMWF, which were in decent agreement with a wetter short wave trough impacting northern and central New Mexico late this week, have now become less so. The GFS remains more progressive, with a weak front backing into northeast and east central New Mexico Friday, then a stronger one by Sunday as a couple of somewhat phased troughs cross the central and southern Rockies Saturday through Sunday bringing precipitation to New Mexico. The GFS then has a closed low which brings additional precipitation Monday night. In contrast, the ECMWF initially develops a closed low to our west, but delays the onset of precipitation until Sunday, then keeps it going through Monday night. The good news is they both indicate precipitation and cooler, but not overly so, weather. Weather grids for this package favor the faster GFS solution for the upcoming weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Breezy to windy westerly winds will develop again today along and east of the central mountain chain, mainly along the I-40 corridor at lower elevations. After poor to fair RH recoveries this morning, RH values will quickly drop below 15% this afternoon across much of eastern NM. Elevated fire weather concerns exist for the I-40 corridor in eastern NM due to these variables. Due to Haines values of 4, near normal temps as well as the limited spatial area of critical wind speeds, will not be issuing a Red Flag Warning. Upper level ridging builds over the Desert Southwest on Monday, limiting winds and increasing temperatures. Temperatures will continue to climb through mid week as the ridge translates eastward and west-southwest flow arrives in its wake. A broad trough will pass to the north of NM, increasing winds across at least the northern half of the state for the latter half of the work week, especially at mtn top level. By next weekend, another storm system looks to be in the offing, but confidence is low on how it will evolve. It does look like this system may bring precipitation chances though. Stay tuned. 34 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$