657 FXUS64 KCRP 151016 CCA AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 416 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2020 .SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)... The cold front is currently north of our area, and is expected to reach our northern tier counties between 5-6AM with a weak wind shift. The front will move quickly southward through the entire CWA by noon with very dry air and strong winds of 15 to 25 knots lagging a couple hours behind the frontal wind shift. The stronger push of dry air and high pressure causing an increase in moisture convergence, will allow for the potential of isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop ahead and along the cold front. Included thunderstorms due to NAM showing instability with a weak cap, with additional support by the SPC including our area in their general thunderstorms area. Precipitation chances will diminish quickly behind the front, with dry conditions and mostly clear skies dominating this afternoon. Strong dry northeasterly flow in wake of the front will cause a few hazards this afternoon and evening. These hazards are: Coastal Flood Advisory south of Port Aransas, Small Craft Advisory for all bays and waters, as well as an Elevated Fire Danger Threat for a large portion of South Texas. Winds are expected to decrease this evening. Tonight will be much cooler with efficient radiational cooling due to drier air and clear skies in place. Lows in the low 40s for our northern counties, to near 50 across the southernmost portions. It wouldn't be too surprising to see lows reaching the upper 30s near the Victoria Crossroads as a couple HiRes models have hinted at. Dry and around normal highs are expected Sunday as winds persist out of the northeast. Minor coastal flooding will likely be needed again during high times of high tide. && .LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)... .LONG TERM... Tranquil weather is expected for the long term period as a surface high pressure ridge over the coastal plains Tuesday drifts a little to the north for Wednesday and Thursday. Light northeast winds Tuesday will become east and southeast Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will be near normal on Tuesday with lows slightly below normal Tuesday and Wednesday. Onshore flow will lead to a gradual warming trend and gradual increase in clouds Wednesday through the end of the week with highs back to slightly above normal. A persistent easterly flow across the Gulf will lead to increasing swells Tuesday through Thursday. This will maintain minor coastal flooding during time of high tide for beaches south of Port Aransas at least through Thursday morning. .MARINE... Light and variable winds will strengthen and shift out of the northeast following the cold front passage this morning and afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible along this front before strong north northeast winds usher in very dry air. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all bays and waters today as winds of 20 to 25 knots push seas to 5 to 7 feet. The Small Craft Advisory will continue for the offshore waters tonight as moderate to strong winds weaken west to east.Moderate northeast winds will continue Monday night through Tuesday night over the Gulf waters. A weak to moderate onshore flow will occur Wednesday and Thursday. Persistent easterly flow across the Gulf will lead to elevated seas, building to 6 to 8 feet offshore/SCA conditions Wednesday night through Thursday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 49 76 54 75 / 20 0 0 0 0 Victoria 75 40 74 45 75 / 20 0 0 0 0 Laredo 78 48 76 53 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 Alice 78 46 75 51 76 / 20 0 0 0 0 Rockport 76 52 70 59 72 / 20 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 78 42 77 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 78 49 76 53 77 / 20 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 75 59 72 63 73 / 20 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CST this evening For the following zones: Kleberg Islands... Nueces Islands. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 11 PM CST this evening For the following zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 5 PM CST this afternoon For the following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this evening For the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM. && $$ EMF/94...SHORT TERM TMT/89...LONG TERM