541 FXUS64 KMEG 150548 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 1148 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 .UPDATE... Updated for 06Z aviation discussion. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1123 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020/ .UPDATE... Updated to expand the Wind Advisory and raise wind speeds/gusts. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1005 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020/ Monitoring conditions as storms develop to our West in a highly sheared airmass. The Storm Prediction has an marginal risk for severe storms across much of West TN along the Mississippi River, Northwest Mississippi and the Missouri bootheel with a slight risk farther West in East Arkansas. 0-6km shear is in excess of 75kt, across Southwest Missouri but storms should be moving into a less dynamic atmosphere. Discrete cells should develop into a line as they move into East Arkansas and across the Midsouth overnight. The highest threat for tornadoes will be in far Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel this evening with a wind threat possibly continuing for much of the overnight hours. Conditions are not as favorable for severe storms East of the Mississippi River. Additionally gradient wind will strengthen overnight, initially from the Southeast, then shifting from the Northwest behind a cold front and accompanying line of storms. Sustained speeds around 25 mph are expected across much of west Tennessee with gusts to 35 mph possible. 30 && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 548 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020/ .DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this afternoon places a surface low over Southern Manitoba with an occluding cold front stretching south from the Northern/Central Plains and back into the Southwest United States, and a dryline extending from Central Kansas back through West Texas. GOES-16 satellite trends/METAR observations indicate partly sunny skies across the Mid-South with temperatures as of 2 PM CST in the 70s across many locations. Short term models including Convective Allowing Model Solutions (CAMs) indicate a few warm advection rain showers are possible across the Mid-South this evening with a line of showers and thunderstorms developing along the front across Central/Southwest Missouri and into Western Arkansas then pushing into the Mid- South overnight into early Sunday morning. Models continue to indicate this line of showers and thunderstorms weakening as it approaches the Mississippi River in a more stable airmass and becoming more elevated with time. A potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms may exist predominantly west of the Mississippi River over Northeast Arkansas where a few damaging wind gusts will be possible if convection can transport the higher winds aloft down to the surface. Otherwise, overall confidence in widespread severe weather remains low with this forecast issuance. In addition, gradient winds will begin to pick up later this evening as the front approaches with winds along the front increasing up to around 20 kts. At this time, it appears that winds may remain just below wind advisory criteria but will continue to monitor evening trends for the overnight hours. The aforementioned cold front will begin to push east of the area Sunday morning with much cooler and drier air filtering into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Highs on Sunday will be in the 60s with lows Sunday night in the 30s. Long term models indicate an early week upper level trough axis will move east next week allowing for an upper level ridge to build into the region. This will result in another period of precipitation free weather and near normal mid-November temperatures rising towards 70 degrees towards next weekend. CJC && .AVIATION...06Z TAFs The TAF period will start off VFR but will become MVFR as ceilings lower with thunderstorms. Winds will be gusty with gust up to 35kts from the south-southwest. After the front passes overnight and into the morning hours, skies will clear out and winds will gradually decrease throughout the day from the west- northwest. KRF && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Wind Advisory until noon CST Sunday for Clay-Craighead- Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Poinsett-St. Francis. MO...Wind Advisory until noon CST Sunday for Dunklin-Pemiscot. MS...Wind Advisory until noon CST Sunday for Alcorn-Benton MS-DeSoto- Marshall-Prentiss-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica. TN...Wind Advisory until noon CST Sunday for Benton TN-Carroll- Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman- Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison- McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley. && $$