209 FXUS64 KAMA 150504 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1104 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 .AVIATION... 06Z TAF Cycle MVFR conditions expected early in mainly dust which will cause some visibilities to fall to near 4 to 6 miles at times along with ceilings around 1500 to 3000 feet. This should give way to VFR conditions again by 09Z to 11Z Sunday which will continue through 06Z Monday. North to northwest winds 5 to 15 knots will become southwest to south and increase to around 10 to 20 knots after 15Z to 18Z Sunday. The southwest to south winds will diminish again to 5 to 15 knots after 00Z Monday. Schneider && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 509 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020/ AVIATION... 00Z TAF Cycle VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites through 00Z Monday. West to northwest winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts near 30 knots will continue to diminish to around 5 to 15 knots after 04Z to 06Z Sunday. Schneider PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 157 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020/ SHORT TERM... Strong and gusty winds will gradually decrease toward sunset. Winds will then turn more to the north as surface high pressure builds over the area. Lows are expected to fall into the lower 20's to the lower 30's given the light winds and dry air mass. FIRE WEATHER... Critical fire weather conditions will wane late this afternoon and early this evening as winds decrease. LONG TERM...Tomorrow through Friday... Dry conditions continue throughout the long term forecast period. With the main H250 jet dynamics displaced well to the north across the northern CONUS in-conjunction with an H500 ridge slowly traversing the central CONUS, this will enhance downward motion in the atmosphere. Therefore, dry conditions and temperatures above average are expected. Winds may be gusty at times, especially on Wednesday where a sfc trough sets up lee of the Rockies in SE Colorado enhancing SW flow, which as a result keeps the temperatures in the area warm due to downslope flow. High temperatures may peak into the lower 80s by Wednesday and Thursday for parts of the Panhandles, with temperatures overall throughout the long term forecast period above average. Watching a potential trough moving into the Panhandles by next weekend with some precipitation chances possible. As expected, too early to see model agreement at this time and will update forecast accordingly as we get closer with time. Meccariello FIRE WEATHER...Tomorrow... Elevated fire weather conditions are possible for the Panhandles tomorrow, especially the central and western Panhandles. This will be RH driven with min RH values of 10 to 15 percent. Southwesterly 20 ft winds will range between 15 to 20 MPH by tomorrow afternoon, especially across the western Panhandles. As a result, max RFTI values at this time range from 1 to 3 in some locations along with dormant fuels with ERC values in the 70th to over 80th percentile, especially for some western Panhandles locations. Meccariello && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 11/99