022 FXUS62 KILM 142028 CCA AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 326 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will shift NE of the area through Sunday as a cold front approaches from the west. The front swings offshore Sunday night. High pressure rebuilds on Monday before a dry cold front moves offshore by Tuesday evening. Reinforcing high pressure rebuilds into the area mid to late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure centered over eastern Virginia will continue sliding into the Atlantic ahead of a rapidly moving cold front located along the Mississippi River this afternoon. The cold front moves into southeastern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina before sunset Sunday evening. As the low-level flow veers from the east to southwest ahead of the front, the models imply two rounds of showers. The first round will be with the onshore flow, and the second will be with the frontal boundary. The moisture depth is mainly below 6000 feet, and the model shows most of the upper vertical motion above this moisture until the lifting ahead of the front. With the precipitable water values falling below the 75% moving average along the coast and a fast-moving front will limit the rainfall. Totals are forecasted to be around a 0.10" or less with higher isolated amounts just under a 0.25". Low-Temperature Forecast: With onshore flow, the low temperatures tonight will fall into the middle 50s inland and into the lower to middle 60s along the coast. Sunday night after the cold frontal passage, low will fall into the middle 40s west of I-95 to the lower 50s at the beach. High-Temperature Forecast: Sunday: With the south to southwest winds ahead of the cold front, the highs will rise into the mid to upper 70s, but any area close to the waters with the onshore flow will see temperatures 3 to 6 degrees cooler. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Quiet weather on tap early next week as high presure builds behind a cold front. We'll be in a completely different airmass on Monday compared to Sunday, with NW to N flow at the surface and zonal flow aloft. Precipitable water values will come down to around a quarter of an inch which is less than half the normal value for this time of year. As a result, expect abundant sunshine with highs in the low to mid 60s. A cooler evening is expected on Monday night with lows dipping into the low to mid 40s. Could see a couple of localized areas with isolated to patchy frost, but the best chance will come in the days to follow. Tuesday should be slightly warmer than Monday (mostly mid 60s) as winds trend westerly briefly in advance of a subtle, dry cold front that swings through by evening...associated with mid level troughing and its short wave activity evolving through the Eastern Seaboard. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A 1035mb+ reinforcing surface high builds into the Ohio River Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday...as troughing in the mid and upper levels gradually shifts offshore. Associated cold, dry advection will keep precip chances at bay, leaving us mainly with a temperature forecast through the middle of the week. Can't rule frost out for Tuesday night with temps in the mid to upper 30s, but current thinking as that post frontal NW flow and very dry airmass will prevent significant frost from forming. Wednesday temps still look chilly with highs in the mid 50s, some 8 to 12 degrees below normal for most. Center of high pressure will be closer to the area on Wednesday night allowing for lighter winds with temps expected to drop into the the mid 30s though typical cool spots may see an hour or two of sub freezing temps. This should lead to a better scenario for frost as well and we will thus continue to monitor for associated products in the days to come. Airmass gradually modifies through the end fo the week with temps near 70 by Fri/Sat. High pressure continues to dominate at the surface and aloft though so not seeing much chance of rain as we head into next weekend. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mostly VFR in the 18Z TAF period. KILM has finally gone VFR over the last hour as the morning fog, which then became low stratus, has eroded away. Winds this afternoon generally ESE at 8-12kts, and will calm after sunset. Moisture from the Atlantic comes into the area tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. IFR Fog could be a concern again before sunrise Sunday morning, particularly inland. Still think KCRE and KMYR should be mostly spared from the fog, given the higher wind speeds. Fog should erode away by 13-15Z, allowing for a return to VFR. Some VCSH also push onshore around this time, and may continue through the end of the TAF period. Winds continue to veer towards the SSE Sunday morning, with sustained speeds around 10-13kts and possible gusts to 18-20kts. Extended Outlook...Outside of some possible fog/low stratus Sunday evening, VFR for the foreseeable future. && .MARINE... Through Sunday Night...As high pressure centered near the Del- Mar- Va peninsula shifts eastward, a fast-moving cold front centered over the Mississippi River this afternoon will zip to the coast by sunset Sunday. The front will see the winds veer from the east to the southwest and then northwest after the frontal passage. Winds are expected to increase to 15 to 18 knots with gust to 20 to 25 knots. The seas are expected to increase to 3 to 5 feet with the frontal passage. Small craft conditions may be met with frequent gusts to 25 knots. Monday through Thursday...Monday will start with less than pleasant boating conditions with 15-20kt NW/N winds and associated steep, short period seas around 3-4ft. Expect conditions to improve later Monday into Tuesday as high pressure ridging settles over the area from the W/WSW. Another surge of NW to N winds and building short period seas are expected late Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon as reinforcing 1035mb+ high pressure builds into the area behind a dry cold front. At this time conditions are expected to be just below Small Craft Advisory criteria but will need to monitor in the days to come. Marine conditions expected to gradually improve mid to late in the week as high pressure settles over the area. However, will need to watch for increasing ESE swell in the long range as said high moves offshore and interacts with waviness in the tropics. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The new moon impact peaks on tomorrow's tides and coastal flooding will be an issue for the next several days along the Cape Fear River from downtown Wilmington southward. Minor coastal flooding along the beaches is expected, with the highest of the tides around sunrise. So will continue with Coastal Flood Advisory through Monday at the coast and inland. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for SCZ054-056. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EST Monday for NCZ107. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MCW NEAR TERM...RH SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...MCW AVIATION...IGB MARINE...RH/MCW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RH