835 FXUS61 KPHI 141918 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 218 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will cross the region today before moving offshore tonight. A cold front will move through our area Sunday into Sunday night. A dry, reinforcing cold front will cross the region on Tuesday. High pressure will then build in from the west for most of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Not a whole lot to discuss for today's forecast. Surface high pressure moves directly overhead during the remainder of the day. A fairly chilly air mass remains in place through the daytime hours, with 850mb temperatures hovering around 0C. Near full sunshine is expected with the high centered overhead. This will boost high temperatures into the low to mid 50s, near to just a bit below average but complemented by the sunny skies and light winds. For the overnight hours, the high will begin to shift off the coast but remains in close proximity. Mid and high level cloudiness will begin to increase, especially later in the night, ahead of a warm front associated with low pressure tracking towards the Great Lakes. Precipitation associated with that system will remain to the west through the night, with dry conditions expected for us. Temperatures are likely to fall quickly after sunset with a dry air mass in place and the initially clear skies and light winds. The increasing clouds and onset of low level warm advection should cause temperatures to stabilize after midnight. Lows will be mainly in the low to mid 30s, again near to slightly below average. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure will move through the Great Lakes states and into Ontario on Sunday, continuing into Quebec Sunday night through Monday. This system will drop a cold front into our area on Sunday, crossing offshore Sunday night. Guidance has backed off on precipitation moving in during the early morning hours on Sunday. As a result we have backed off on the potential for any mixed precipitation but leave a slight chance of some snow showers across the southern Poconos and northwestern New Jersey. However, temperatures are likely to warm rather quickly so it may be a very brief occurrence. Showers will increase in coverage through late Sunday morning and continue through Sunday night. Decent moisture is available with this system but don't anticipate a drenching rain like last week. Expect rain to be around an inch or less in most areas. Rain will taper off Sunday night as the cold front moves through the region. All areas should be rain free by midnight. The front pushes offshore as the upper jet crosses the region. Combined with the cold air advection behind the front, winds will become quite gusty. Wind gusts in the southerly flow ahead of the front have the potential to gust up around 30 to 40 mph, though higher gusts around 40 to 50 mph may be possible right along the coast as some soundings show a pocket of 50+ knots about 2000-2500ft above the surface. A Wind Advisory may be needed but confidence is too low to issue one at this time but it is something that may need to be examined more of the next couple of model runs. South to southwest flow ahead of the front on Sunday will bring warmer air into the region. Highs on Sunday should rise into the mid 50s to upper 60s across the forecast area. Skies clear out pretty quickly behind the front Sunday night but with the winds not turning fully to the west/northwest, we won't see temperatures drop off as quickly. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 30s to 40s across the region but with the winds remaining up overnight, it will certainly feel a little brisk out there. High pressure will build across the Gulf coast states on Monday start to push into our area. The gradient behind the departing low and the building high will keep the winds up through Monday, though they will not be quite as strong as they were on Sunday. Winds will be around 10 to 20 mph with gusts around 25 to 30 mph, with the highest winds remaining closer to the coast and along the ridges of the higher elevations. Daytime highs on Monday will be more seasonable or slightly cooler. Highs will rise into the 50s across the region with some 40s across the southern Poconos and northwestern New Jersey. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As the high builds in, a trough develops to our northwest and drops down as a secondary cold front/trough on Tuesday. This looks to be a dry, reinforcing boundary as it has markedly colder air moving in behind it. With a colder northwest to west flow, we can expect the highs to drop about 5 to 10 degrees from where they were on Monday and remain in the 40s to lower 50s across the region, with some upper 30s across the higher terrain. With the cold air in place and limited cloud cover Tuesday night, overnight lows will drop down into the 20s to lower 30s, by far the coldest temperatures we have seen in the past couple of weeks. Unfortunately, the winds will remain up overnight as the upper jet crosses the region, making it feel even colder than it actually is outside. It will certainly feel much more like winter is coming than it has of late. The high slide across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys on Wednesday before sliding to the east then southeast on Thursday. Overall, we should have a couple of beautiful fall days across the region, albeit below normal temperatures. Wednesday will still be fairly cold with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s across the region. The airmass should be able to modify some by Thursday though it will only result in highs being slightly warmer and mostly in the mid 40s to lower 50s and trending up into the mid 50s to upper 50s on Friday. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today... VFR with mostly clear skies. WNW winds 5 to 10 kt with some gusts around 15 kt possible. High confidence. Tonight... VFR with mid to high level clouds increasing with time. Winds light and variable or calm. LLWS may begin to affect RDG and ABE towards 12z but will more likely hold off until daytime Sunday. High confidence. Outlook... Sunday...VFR conditions early will drop to MVFR or lower as rain moves into the region from west to east. Conditions will start to improve back to VFR, mainly between 23z-03Z. Southeast winds around 10 to 20 knots becoming southwest to west late. Wind gusts around 20 to 30 knots with gusts of 35 to 40 knots possible at KACY. Highest gusts expected mainly between 18Z-00Z. Moderate confidence. Monday...VFR conditions expected. West winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 to 25 knots. Moderate confidence. Tuesday...VFR conditions expected. West to northwest winds around 10 to 20 knots with gusts of 25 to 30 knots possible. Moderate confidence. Wednesday...VFR conditions expected. Northwest winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 to 25 knots possible. Moderate confidence. && .MARINE... Today... Sub-SCA conditions are expected. Seas on the Atlantic coastal waters may approach 5 ft through the morning, but should decline during the afternoon and run mainly 3 to 4 ft. Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt with some gusts to 20 kt possible. Tonight... Sub-SCA conditions expected. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Light northwest winds becoming light and variable for a time, then southeast at 5 to 10 kt late. Outlook... Sunday...Gale Watch in effect for the New Jersey and Delaware ocean waters, including the lower Delaware Bay. Increasing seas and winds through the day. Small Craft Advisory conditions likely by midday increasing to Gale Force by early afternoon. Southerly winds around 15 to 25 knots becoming westerly Sunday night and increasing to 20 to 30 knots. Wind gusts will be around 30 to 40 knots Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, dropping off some into early Monday morning. Seas build to 6 to 10 feet on the ocean. Monday...Small Craft Advisory conditions expected to continue through Monday. West winds around 15 to 20 knots with gusts around 25 to 30 knots. Seas around 4 to 6 feet will drop to 2 to 4 feet Monday night. Tuesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to continue on the waters with the potential for Gale force gusts Tuesday afternoon/evening. West winds around 15 to 25 knots with gusts around 30 to 35 knots possible. Higher gusts drop off Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Seas around 2 to 4 feet with build to 4 to 5 feet through the day, and then start to subside Tuesday night. Wednesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to continue on the waters. Northwest winds around 10 to 20 knots with gusts around 25 to 30 knots, diminishing through the evening possibly falling below SCA levels by early Wednesday night. Seas will be around 2 4 feet. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Despite a relatively unfavorable meteorological pattern for coastal flooding, astronomical tides are high owing to the new moon. Additionally, there are indications weak southerly to southeasterly surface flow may begin prior to onset of the high tide for Sunday morning (the higher of the two daily high tides). Given the occurrence of minor tidal flooding the past two mornings and model guidance suggesting the possibility of advisory-level flooding on the Atlantic coast and on adjacent portions of Delaware Bay, we have issued a coastal flood advisory for Sunday morning's high tide. The threat for tidal flooding will lower substantially after Sunday morning's high tide, owing to surface flow becoming strong offshore by Sunday evening. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to noon EST Sunday for NJZ012>014-020>027. Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Sunday for NJZ016-021-023. DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to noon EST Sunday for DEZ002>004. Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Sunday for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for ANZ450>455. Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for ANZ431. && $$ Synopsis...Meola Near Term...O'Brien/Staarmann Short Term...Meola Long Term...Meola Aviation...Meola/O'Brien Marine...Meola/O'Brien Tides/Coastal Flooding...CMS