063 FXUS63 KICT 141834 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1234 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night) Issued at 316 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 Water vapor imagery shows shortwave tracking over the Northern Intermountain/Central Great Basin with an associated strong upper jet. At the surface, lee troughing continues to strengthen with a strong low level jet already setup across the Plains. Shortwave will quickly track east today and will be moving out into the High Plains by early this afternoon. Ahead of this wave strong southwest winds are expected by early this afternoon across the Flint Hills into southeast KS. By late this afternoon weak cold front is expected to move through with strong winds following behind it over central KS. So will run with a wind advisory for most of the area to account for both of these situations. Models all agree that we stay mixed out into the early evening, so we should see strong winds continue later than typically expected. Be sure to check out fire weather section for additional details. A few storms may linger this morning across far southeast KS in the 850-700mb theta-e advection regime but the majority of this activity should be east of the forecast area by the late morning hours. By Sun afternoon shortwave trough will be tracking across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region with strong northwest flow aloft over the Plains. Northwest flow will remain over the area through Monday. This will promote seasonal temps for Sun with high confidence in above normal temps to start to work week. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 316 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 Good model agreement in upper ridging over the Rockies Mon night and moving into the Plains for Tue. Meanwhile low amplitude shortwave will be coming on shore over the Pacific Northwest which will allow for a transition to more zonal flow over the Plains. This will keep the warmer temps in place through the work week with gusty winds expected on Wed, which should also be the warmest day of the week, with much of the area seeing 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1143 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 Concerns: Gusty winds and directional change Low level wind shear A cold front is on its way southeast and will move through this afternoon. As the front works south, the winds will change from south/southwest to west then northwest with the frontal passage. As expected winds are strong ahead of this front with sustained speeds around 20 to 25kts and gusts near 40kts. Along the front there is a reprieve in the speeds as noticed in north central Kansas currently. The longevity of this window of lower speeds was a challenge due to the observations noticed upstream. While there are quite strong winds across northeast Colorado and western Nebraska associated with the tightened gradient of the low pressure system, the speeds are lower in between. The winds should pick up again as the system moves east this afternoon, but the current timing may need to be adjusted with amendments very possible. Low level wind shear is the next concern and is expected at most sites from 3-6Z. The speed component is the larger factor with values of 45-50kts. Again the window will last until around 12Z and could impact any morning flights for all but KCNU. Other than the IFR ceilings at KCNU, the rest of the sites will remain in VFR conditions. The clouds in eastern Kansas have started to erode on the fringes. This should continue with KCNU returning to VFR in a couple of hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 316 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 Very high grassland fire danger is expected area wide today with a few counties west of I-135 flirting with extreme values. Strong south/southwest winds will start off late this morning for areas generally along and southeast of the KS Turnpike and will continue into the afternoon. Weak cold front will slide into central KS later this afternoon with strong west and northwest winds behind it, generally after 2pm. Wind speeds area wide will be in the 25 to 35 mph range with gusts around 40 mph. While strong winds will elevated the grassland fire danger area wide, the most critical values will be west of I-135, where RH values will be lower. We are looking for afternoon RH values in the 20-25 percent range west of I-135 with values around 40% over the Flint Hills. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 72 35 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 Hutchinson 70 32 59 35 / 0 0 0 0 Newton 69 34 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 ElDorado 71 35 58 38 / 10 0 0 0 Winfield-KWLD 72 36 59 37 / 10 0 0 0 Russell 66 30 59 35 / 10 0 0 0 Great Bend 67 29 58 34 / 10 0 0 0 Salina 67 33 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 McPherson 69 32 58 35 / 0 0 0 0 Coffeyville 71 37 61 37 / 30 10 0 0 Chanute 70 37 59 38 / 30 10 0 0 Iola 70 37 58 38 / 30 10 0 0 Parsons-KPPF 71 37 60 38 / 30 10 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for KSZ052-053-068>072- 082-083-091>096-098>100. Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-033-047>051- 067. Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-047. && $$ SHORT TERM...RBL LONG TERM...RBL AVIATION...VJP FIRE WEATHER...RBL