881 FXUS64 KMEG 141758 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1158 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 .UPDATE... See aviation discussion below. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1059 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020/ DISCUSSION...GOES-16 Satellite trends show a subtropical jet stretching from Mexico back up through the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley this morning. Meanwhile, surface analysis indicates a cold front over the Plains/Rockies with southerly return flow on the back side of high pressure over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. As of 10 AM CST, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the upper 50s to lower 50s at most locations. Regional WSR-88D radar trends indicate a few light rain showers moving across portions of West Tennessee with the remainder of the Mid-South rain free at this time. Short term models including Convective Allowing Model Solutions (CAMs) indicate the potential for a few light warm advection rain showers occurring mostly west of the Mississippi River into this afternoon. Will make some minor modifications to the forecast to account for these trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track overall at this time. Update will be available shortly. CJC PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 506 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020/ DISCUSSION... /issued 500 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020/ The Midsouth remains on track for a quick rain event tonight, followed by a week of dry and mild weather. Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper trof over the northern Rockies, and a subtropical jet extending across northern Mexico, to the Red and Ohio River valleys. The progressive upper trof will dig into the middle and upper MS River valleys tonight. Height falls from this system will extend down o the gulf coast and expect some phasing of the northern and southern branches of the upper jet between Memphis and St. Louis. Concurrently, a 60 knot low level jet will develop over east AR late this evening. NAM Bufr 11 PM sounding for Jonesboro depicts the top of the inversion around 875mb, with unidirectional shear and MUCAPE of 1200 J/KG above this level. Strong momentum above the steep nocturnal inversion will likely have limited success reaching the surface, except in a narrow corridor along a strongly-forced surface cold front. Convective-allowing model (CAM) consensus depicts a long relatively straight narrow line of storms, having evolved from a QLCS earlier in the evening over southwest Ozarks. A marginal damaging wind threat appears reasonable for northeast AR late this evening, with continued weakening as the line progresses east overnight. The front will slow over northeast MS late tonight, as the phased upper jet core exits to the OH River valley. A few showers will be possible over northeast MS Sunday morning, mainly east of the Natchez Trace Parkway. Otherwise, dry areawide on Sunday, and the remainder of the week. West-northwest flow aloft will prevail early, before a deamplifying upper ridge lifts into the lower MS River valley midweek. Zonal flow aloft will prevail over the latter half of the week, with southerly surface flow and continued mild temperatures. PWB AVIATION... No major changes to the forecast this package. VFR conditions will prevail for the most part over the TAF period. There will be a narrow window at each TAF site that CIGS/VSBYS could drop to MVFR with SHRAS along cold front that will move through overnight. Line of convection should be dying as it pushes east. Southerly winds will increase with speeds ranging from 10-15 KTS sustained with higher gusts. Winds will continue to increase overnight as direction switches to SW ahead of cold front. Have mention of low level wind shear at all TAF sites this evening into the overnight hours ahead of the front as the low-level jet increases across the region. Winds will turn around to the NW behind the front and will remain gusty for a few hours before diminishing as high pressure begins to build into the area. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$