895 FXUS63 KJKL 141620 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1120 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 1120 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2020 15z sfc analysis shows high pressure retreating as the pressure gradient is tightening to the west with the approach of the next system. This will kick up the winds during the afternoon here from the south and southwest bringing in more warm air after a chilly start. Currently readings are running in the mid and upper 40s most places as the valleys are mixing out their cold near dawn lows. Meanwhile, under mostly cloudy skies, dewpoints are generally in the upper 30s to low 40s. Some light radar returns are moving through central Kentucky but continue to fade out as they approach our area in line with the latest CAMs guidance - but we cannot rule out a sprinkle or two into the first part of the afternoon. We are still on track for some high winds late tonight and through much of the day Sunday. With this update have mainly fine tuned the PoPs, sky cover, and to include the latest obs/trends for the T/Td grids. These updates have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a forthcoming fresh ZFP and SAF issuance to remove morning wording. UPDATE Issued at 758 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2020 Freshened up the hourly temperatures, as well as the sky cover, accounting for trends in observations and satellite imagery. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 430 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2020 The latest upper level pattern features amplifying flow across the West, as a short wave digs southeast across the Rockies. East of the Rockies, mainly zonal flow exists, while ridging holds on across the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, high pressure is found east of the Mississippi River, with the center of this high located across the Ohio Valley. Further west, deep low pressure is found in southwest Saskatchewan, with a warm front positioned southeast into the Plains, while the cold front arcs back to the southwest through the Intermountain West. High clouds are streaming overhead across eastern Kentucky, out ahead of elevated convection ongoing near Missouri. Temperatures range from the low to mid 30s across most valley locations, while ridges are in the lower 40s. The models have maintained good agreement regarding the upper level pattern through the short term. The flow will be progressive and amplified, with a deep trough to move into the Plains by late today, before swinging through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys by Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will retreat to the Middle Atlantic/New England region today, with low pressure emerging from the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley region. As an embedded short wave trough becomes negatively tilted, low pressure will deepen rapidly as it moves into the Great Lakes and eventually southeast Ontario late tonight into Sunday. This will allow for a vigorous cold front to barrel through the Commonwealth late tonight into Sunday morning, bringing a round of showers, as well as strong southwest to west southwest winds. The front will continue to march towards the Eastern Seaboard by late Sunday afternoon. There are still some timing differences with the cold front, so generally a blend of the guidance was followed. Clouds will gradually thicken across the area today; however, temperatures should rebound into the upper 50s and lower 60s north, while lower to middle 60s will be seen in the south. Clouds will continue to thicken and lower tonight; however, eastern valleys will likely decouple and drop off into the low to mid 40s, before the increasing pressure gradient allows for warming temperatures generally after midnight. Showers will threaten from west to east late tonight, with southwest winds increasing towards dawn. The frontal passage will occur Sunday morning, with stronger wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph expected to mix down, thanks to a cranking 70-80 kt 850 mb jet. Given the consistent agreement, confidence has increased enough to issue a wind advisory for the entire area from early Sunday morning and continuing through the day. Showers will move out quickly from west to east through early Sunday afternoon. Winds will become more west southwest behind the frontal passage, with highs mainly in the low to mid 60s, more likely occurring in the morning, as stronger cold air advection bleeds in behind the boundary during the afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 430 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2020 A fairly quiet stretch of weather is in store for the majority of the extended forecast period. In the upper levels, a trough axis will be passing just to our east at the beginning of the period, with flow out of the northwest. At the surface, a much cooler airmass takes over behind the passage of a cold front, with winds out of the northwest as high pressure begins to nose its way in. Temperatures will be below normal for the first half of the work week with highs in the low to mid 50s through Wednesday. Clear skies and dry conditions prevail as high pressure dominates. This will help allow for a decent diurnal range as lows dip into the upper 20s to mid 30s, with the valleys dropping even lower. Moving into the latter half of the work week, heights begin to rise as we see modest ridging aloft. At the surface, high pressure begins to shift off the the east, allowing for winds to shift to a more southwesterly return flow. Temperature begin to moderate into the low to mid 60s for Thursday and Friday, while nighttime lows warm into the 40s. As we get into the end of the period on Saturday, we see our first chance of rain enter the forecast, brought along by the approach of an upper level disturbance and reflective surface cold front. However, there is still a fair amount of disagreement this far out, especially surrounding the timing of the front's progression. So have stayed closer to the blended guidance, keeping only slight chance PoPs for the northern portion of the CWA Saturday afternoon. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 758 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2020 VFR conditions will hold through most of the period at the TAF sites. Clouds will thicken and lower with time, especially after dusk. A strong low level jet will develop across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys tonight, bringing the threat of wind shear by late this evening. As a cold front approaches towards dawn, ceilings will lower to MVFR, and showers will move in from west to east. Surface winds will be variable and average less than 5 kts through early this evening, before increasing to 10 to 15 kts, with gusts of 25 to 35 kts, out of the south and southwest towards the end of the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...HAS AVIATION...GEOGERIAN