324 FXUS61 KCLE 140054 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 754 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move east of the area this evening. High pressure will build over the area tonight and slowly move eastward Saturday to settle along the Mid Atlantic Coast. A deep low pressure system north of the Great Lake Region will move east, dragging an associated strong cold front across the area on Sunday. A lingering trough will remain over the area for the beginning of next week. && .NEAR TERM / THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Made minor updates to temperatures based on current observations. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. Previous Discussion... Aside from the lake enhanced showers, sustained winds from the west of 10 to 15 knots, with gusts of 20 knots (up to 25 knots near the lakeshore) will persist into the early overnight hours. On Saturday, winds will weaken and shift to be southerly at 5 to 10 knots as high pressure builds east over the area. There will be a break in the clouds between low pressure systems, allowing for some sunshine on Saturday afternoon, however the next low pressure is not far behind. By Saturday evening, winds are expected to increase out of the southwest at 10 to 15 knots with gusts near 20 knots. Moisture advection, particularly in the low levels, significantly increases, leading to increases cloud development and likely showers by 00Z Sunday. Tonight, temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 20s, with the coldest temperatures expected to be along and west of I-71. Tomorrow, temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 40s, however with the clearance of clouds expected in the afternoon, temperatures may warm a bit more, like the area experienced today. As we move into the overnight hours on Saturday, temperatures will not experience as much of a fluctuation as the cloud deck that builds in will moderate temperatures at upper 30s to low 40s across the area. Throughout the entire near term forecast, breezy conditions may make these temperatures feel a bit colder than the actual temperature though. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The two main weather stories for the extended period will be the strong gusty winds expected on Sunday into Sunday night and the potential for lake effect precipitation for the primary Snowbelt areas. Model guidance indicate a strong low pressure system will move from the Upper Great Lakes region into southern Ontario on Sunday. Model guidance has this low pressure bottoming out around 980 mb or slightly lower by Sunday afternoon. This system will be a big wind maker. A cold front will quickly move through the area Sunday morning through the early afternoon. Showers will be likely along and ahead of the cold frontal passage. Most of the showers and the cold front will move east of the area by mid afternoon Sunday. Winds will increase during the morning hours and most likely peak during the mid to late afternoon across the area from the west- southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Areas closer to the lakeshore will likely see the highest wind gusts up to 50 mph. A Wind Advisory may be needed for those areas along the lakeshore on Sunday. A large upper level trough will carve out across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Sunday. Maximum temperatures will likely occur before the frontal passage on Sunday in the 50s with a slow fall into the 40s by the afternoon. Colder air aloft will advect in across the eastern Great Lakes Sunday night. Considerable clouds will continue especially downwind of the lakes. 850 mb temperatures only fall to around -5C Sunday night which will be enough for some scattered lake effect rain showers and possibly mixing with or changing to light snow showers for inland areas of northwest PA and far northeast Ohio in the favored Snowbelt. Westerly winds will continue on Monday but slowly decrease to 10 to 15 mph and slightly higher near the lakeshore. A shortwave will round down through the base of the upper level trough which will bring another secondary cold front and a slightly better push of colder air Monday night. Surface temperatures will likely be near freezing or slightly below for inland areas Monday night. 850 temperatures will fall to around -10C or colder moving across the lake. Model guidance indicate several streamers of lake effect snow showers trying to develop Monday night across the primary Snowbelt. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tuesday will be much colder with considerable lake effect clouds and scattered lake effect snow showers. Most areas will struggle to reach out of the 30s where skies remain cloudy. We will continue to mention scattered lake effect snow showers for the primary Snowbelt areas of far NE OH and NW PA Tuesday and Tuesday night possibly lingering into early Wednesday before tapering off. Some minor accumulations could be possible in the higher terrain and inland areas. The coldest night of the week appears to be Tuesday night with overnight lows down into the middle and upper 20s. High pressure will try to build in by Wednesday afternoon with light and variable winds along with clearing skies for most areas. A southerly surface flow returns on Thursday with a moderation in temperatures back to slightly above average for Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... MVFR cloud deck possibly moving briefly overnight with ceiling ascending and dissipating by 12z Saturday. There is also an isolated chance for light showers over northwest PA tonight. West Winds will remain between 7 and 11 knots through 03z. These winds will slowly abate at all taf sites by 09z and shifting to the south by the end of the TAF period. For KCLE winds are expected to increase 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots after 00z Sunday due to the approaching front. Outlook...Non-VFR possible from showers and lake-effect clouds Saturday night through Monday. && .MARINE... We will see some very rough conditions developing on the lake this weekend. We have a Small Craft Advisory for the nearshore waters through this evening into overnight. We will continue to see an onshore flow of westerly winds 15 to 20 knots through the late evening with higher waves. High pressure will slowly build in from the west late tonight with a brief period of lighter winds possible by early Saturday morning. Southerly winds return by Saturday afternoon with a slow increase in wind speed Saturday evening and night. A strong low pressure system will develop from the Upper Midwest and move towards the Upper Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday. Small Craft Advisory conditions will return by Saturday evening with winds increasing 15 to 25 knots. Gale watches are posted for Sunday into Sunday night with southwest to westerly winds expected to increase to 30 to 40 knots and gusts up to 50 knots possible. Waves in the open waters of the lake could easily reach 10 to 15 feet Sunday and Sunday night. Westerly winds will slowly decrease on Monday down to 15 to 25 knots but the waves will take a little longer to calm down. Another secondary cold front will move across the lake Monday night and northwest winds will remain elevated 15 to 25 knots along with higher waves. SCA conditions will likely continue Monday through at least Tuesday night. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for LEZ145>149-165>169. Gale Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for LEZ142>144-162>164. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LEZ146>149. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ142>145. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Campbell NEAR TERM...FZ SHORT TERM...FZ LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Campbell MARINE...Griffin