573 FXUS64 KMEG 121718 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1118 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2020 .DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this morning places a 1023 mb ridge of high pressure over the Great Lakes Region. This is resulting in sunny skies across the Mid-South late this morning with temperatures as of 11 AM CST in the middle 50s to around 60 degrees. Forecast on track and in excellent shape and no updates anticipated at this time. CJC && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 540 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2020/ UPDATE... Updated for 12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion below. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2020/ DISCUSSION... Latest surface analysis places a 1022mb high near Chicago with a lee side low deepening near the Oklahoma Panhandle. Tropical Storm Eta just made landfall near Cedar Key, Florida at the top of the hour. The upper level pattern is dominated by zonal flow across much of the interior U.S. with a shortwave trough over the Northern Rockies. Tranquil weather is anticipated for Thursday and Friday as surface high pressure remains the dominant feature. We will see near normal temperatures each day with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. A weak reinforcing front is expected to push through the region overnight into Friday morning as the aforementioned shortwave descends across the Great Lakes. No rain is expected, only passing clouds and a northwest wind shift. By Friday night, a pair of northern and southern stream shortwaves will come ashore on the west coast. These features will phase into a single longwave trough as they cross the Rockies late Saturday. This will help push another cold front through the region Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. Dynamics look rather healthy with this system with 40 to 60 meter height falls across the north, although it will be coming through at an unfavorable time of day. Instability will be nearly nil, so if there is any convection, it would likely be of the elevated notion. Decided to keep it out of the forecast for now, as confidence still remains low. Either way, the system is only expected to eek out up to a quarter of an inch of QPF, which will be confined to areas north of the I-40 corridor. QPF totals will be much less further south. Cool Canadian high pressure will settle over the Mid-South through at least the middle of next week. This will lead to more seasonal temperatures, with highs around 60 degrees and lows in the 40s. Expect near normal temperatures and dry conditions to persist in the extended forecast period. AC3 && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFs The back edge of an MVFR deck over AL may affect TUP early this morning. Otherwise, VFR through the next 30 hours. A cold front will pass through MEM after 12Z Friday, with stronger northerly winds aided by daytime mixing. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$