930 
FXUS64 KMEG 111727
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1127 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020

.UPDATE...
The cold front has now cleared the Mid-South, ushering in cooler
and drier air across the Mid-South. Remaining rain showers will
end from west to east over the next few hours with decreasing
cloud cover throughout the afternoon hours. Winds will continue
from the north at around 10 mph, gusting over 15 mph at times
through mid-afternoon. Only minor changes were made to the going
forecast, namely adjusting PoPs to account for recent radar
trends. 

MJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 545 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020/ 

UPDATE...

Quick update to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for portions of
northeast Mississippi. The cold front has slowed down considerably
over the past two hours and is now located along a line from
Decatur, Tennessee southwest through Bolivar and back through
Oxford, Mississippi. The slowed motion of the front has allowed 
dense fog to develop and persist over northeast Mississippi. 
Conditions are expected to improve as the front slowly pushes
east over the next couple of hours. 

AC3

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020/ 

DISCUSSION...

A cold front just passed through Memphis over the past hour, noted
by a sharp northwest wind shift and a signification dewpoint 
drop. Light rain will continue to accompany the front as it pushes
through the rest of the forecast area through late morning. Dry 
air and much cooler temperatures will build in this afternoon. 
Expect highs in the upper 50s across the north with middle 60s 
further south. 

The upper level pattern will remain progressive through this 
weekend. The large longwave trough over the Central U.S. will 
lose its influence over the Mid-South as it lifts north of the 
area by early Thursday. By Friday, a shortwave will come ashore on
the west coast and quickly traverse across the southern United 
States. Consequently, high pressure will pivot east and a cold 
front will march across the Southern Plains. Ahead of the front, 
rain showers will move into the Mid-South on Saturday afternoon 
and quickly taper off by Saturday night as the passing wave exits 
the region. 

Models are now in reasonable agreement that the arctic cold front
will move through the Mid-South Sunday night into Monday. Once 
again, QPF totals will be light and generally under a quarter of 
an inch. A dry and cool airmass will build into the region through
at least the middle of next week. Look for actual Fall 
temperatures, with readings near 60 degrees for highs and lows in 
the 30s and 40s.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
/18z TAFs/

Post-frontal stratus producing MVFR conditions still remains at 
TUP, but should improve over the next 2-3 hours to VFR conditions.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period
at TAF sites. N winds 7-11 kts will diminish to 4-6 kts and veer
NNE tonight.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$