743 FXUS64 KHGX 111149 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 549 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 .AVIATION... A weak cold front continues to move toward the coast. The boundary is through Hobby and ceilings should begin to improve there with VFR ceilings to the north and west of this location. Toward the coast, IFR/LIFR conditions will persist for the next couple of hours until the front passes. Both visibility and ceilings are expected to become VFR between 15-18z. VFR conditions are expected areawide tonight as high pressure builds into the central plains. 43 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020/ SHORT TERM...(Today Through Thursday Night) At 2 AM, a weak cold front extended from Jasper to near Hobby Airport and then southwest toward Wharton. The front is moving very slowly toward the coast with areas of fog close to the coast. The Dense Fog Advisory will expire at 4 AM and may be canceled ahead of that time as some improvement in visibility is expected as the front inches its way toward the coast. Pressure rises behind the front are not impressive but they look strong enough to nudge the front into the coastal waters this morning. Convergence along the front has been strong enough to generate some weak showers overnight and there could be a few showers early this morning before convergence weakens. Most areas will likely stay dry. 850 mb temperatures remain warm and MaxT values should once again reach or exceed 80 degrees. Drier air in the wake of the front will keep PW values around an inch or less so am expecting clouds to decrease through the day with just some cirrus by the end of the day. The drier air overnight should allow temperatures to radiate and cooler overnight low temperatures are expected by Thursday morning with lows in the low/mid 50's north and mid 60's toward the coast. Rinse and repeat for Thursday with PW values around an inch or so. No appreciable change in 850 mb temperatures so surface temperatures on Thursday will look similar to today's values. MaxT values on Thursday should again warm into the lower and middle 80's. A weak onshore flow returns Thursday night with a subtle increase in low level moisture/dew points with overnight low temperatures trending just a bit warmer. 43 LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]... At the end of the week the area will be under the influence of a zonal mid/upper level flow pattern just north of a strong mid/upper level ridge centered over Mexico and the western Gulf. Will see above normal max temperatures continue on Friday with southeast winds allowing moisture to increase over the area. On Saturday, a fast moving mid/upper level shortwave trough will move across and erode the northern edge of the ridge and this will allow for the possibility of a few showers across our northern areas. Temperatures still look to be well above normal for the weekend though with the area still under the influence of the ridge and onshore flow. A broad mid/upper level trough will develop over the east-central US late in the weekend and early next week. This trough will allow for a cold front to move across the area on Sunday afternoon or night. There are some timing differences between the ECMWF and GFS with the boundary, with the ECMWF about 12 hours faster than the GFS across SE TX. Expect to see a slight chance of showers on Sunday with heating and convergence near the boundary across the eastern half of the area. In the wake of the cold front, will see a return to more Fall-like temperatures for the start of next week. 33 MARINE... Swells will continue to propagate into the upper Texas coastal waters today as Eta approaches the FL coast. Swells have begun to dampen out and seas are between 3-4 feet with 9-11 second periods. Surface winds will remain light today as the gradient goes flat near a slow moving cold front. The boundary should cross the coast sometime this morning with a wind shift to N-NE as high pressure builds into the mid Mississippi valley. Winds will increase tonight as slightly cooler air moves over the warmer water. The surface high will shift east on Thursday and a light E-SE flow will return. Pressures will begin to fall over West Texas on Friday and surface winds will veer to the SE and slowly strengthen. Onshore winds will persist into Sunday. Another cold front is expected to cross the coastal waters on Sunday night with a N-NE wind developing in the wake of the front. 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 80 53 83 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 82 58 83 58 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 82 67 80 66 77 / 10 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ Discussion...99 Aviation/Marine...99