275 FXUS62 KTAE 100959 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 459 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2020 .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... High pressure over the Eastern Seaboard will begin to retreat out over the Atlantic today as a trough and cold front push eastward across the Central Plains. Tropical Storm Eta has pushed into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and has actually been drifting to the southwest overnight. With Eta a bit further away and the retreat of the high pressure, slightly less breezy conditions are expected today as the gradient loosens a bit. PWs will remain high near 2.0 inches today (near record for this time of year), leading to the development of scattered showers with perhaps a few thunderstorms this afternoon. The 00z sounding shows that most of this moisture is concentrated in the sfc to 500mb layer, with significantly drier air above it. As a result, lapse rates will be pretty puny, and any wind threat would be due more to the gradient wind than convection. The low/mid level moisture layer will also keep conditions mostly overcast through the day with high temperatures unseasonably warm in the low to mid 80s. While Tallahassee probably won't set a record high today (87F), Apalachicola will have a good run at their record of 83F this afternoon. Overcast skies overnight along with high moisture will keep low temperatures quite warm in the low/mid 70s. High temperatures have been running almost 10 degrees above normal with low temperatures around 20 degrees above normal (due to the near-record moisture). .SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday]... At upper levels, a broad trough will dominate the western 2/3 of the nation on Wednesday, with a split flow regime evolving by Thursday. Deep-layer ridging off the Southeast U.S. coast will shift slightly east and weaken through the period. A cold front will push into southern Alabama and North Georgia on Wednesday. Its southeastward progress after that time will depend on the strength and track of Eta. The latest NHC track for Eta has a weakening tropical storm moving very slowly northwestward well south of our offshore waters by Thursday night. Temperatures will remain well above average during this period. PoPs will increase as both the front Eta approach and we remain in an unseasonably humid tropical air mass. .LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]... Obviously Eta will play a primary role in the forecast for Friday and Saturday. The latest NHC track has shifted to the west once again and sped up a bit. We now see the center of Eta tracking just south then west of our western-most coastal waters Friday night through Saturday night. Eta is forecast to be weakening from a storm to a depression as it makes its closest approach to our marine area. Therefore, it is unlikely that tropical-storm force winds will reach inland. That said, it will be quite breezy for our Florida counties south and west of Tallahassee on Friday night if this forecast verifies. PoPs increase to likely for Friday night and Saturday for our western counties. It is still too early to describe other impacts since future track shifts are certainly possible. However, it does not appear at this time that the environment will be all that favorable for tornadoes on the east side of this system. && .AVIATION... [Through 06Z Wednesday] MVFR ceilings are expected again this morning. Some improvement to VFR will likely occur during the day, but periods of MVFR will still be possible. Increasing rain chances during the afternoon with the best chances over the eastern terminals. Another round of low ceilings will be possible overnight. && .MARINE... As the pressure gradient slackens today, winds and seas will recede across the marine area. The small craft advisory for the offshore legs will be dropped by this evening. Winds will return to small craft advisory levels beginning on Thursday as Eta approaches with tropical storm conditions possible across the waters from late Thursday through Friday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Transport winds will remain breezy with mixing heights fairly low for the next couple of days. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible each day. Humidity will remain high, and no fire weather concerns are expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Rainfall is not expected to be significant over the next several days. With Eta's more westward track, there is an increased chance for higher rainfall totals late in the week. However, there is still too much uncertainty with both Eta's strength and track as it approaches the Gulf Coast to determine any flood risk at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 85 73 84 72 81 / 40 20 40 30 50 Panama City 84 72 83 71 81 / 20 20 40 30 40 Dothan 81 71 82 69 79 / 20 20 60 30 50 Albany 81 72 83 71 79 / 40 10 60 40 60 Valdosta 83 73 85 71 80 / 40 20 50 30 60 Cross City 86 72 87 72 84 / 30 10 40 20 50 Apalachicola 82 73 81 72 79 / 10 20 30 30 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Franklin. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST /1 PM CST/ this afternoon for Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...Merrifield SHORT TERM...Wool LONG TERM...Wool AVIATION...Merrifield MARINE...Wool FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield HYDROLOGY...Wool