034 FXUS62 KFFC 091946 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 246 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2020 ...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion for Nov 9... .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/... The short term period will be marked by the effects of Eta in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and high pressure centered off the Eastern Seaboard. This setup will promote continued easterly flow and deep moisture advection across the CWA. Today, isolated showers are expected mainly across the southern and eastern portions of the CWA, where the greatest moisture is focused. Models are progging a slug of tropical moisture to push into the CWA from the southeast on Tuesday, so PoPs are forecast to increase from slight chance to chance area-wide over the course of the day. PoPs will further increase to likely overnight Tuesday into Wednesday for much of north Georgia, aided by ascent associated with an approaching trough from the west. Highs and lows will be well above-average through the period. Martin .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/... Uncertainty continues into the long term thanks in large part to Tropical Storm Eta and how long the storm plans to stick around in the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of whether or not the core of the storm does track over us, we do expect moisture from the storm to impact the CWA and bring potentially heavy rainfall to the CWA, especially in some of the higher terrain. Eta is expected to begin moving to the north Tuesday night after stalling near the western tip of Cuba for most of the day. This northward movement is in response to a large upper level trough and embedded shortwave that ejects out of the SW CONUS and begins to move to the NE. This is also expected to help break down the subtropical ridge that been guiding Eta as of recent, allowing Eta to pulled into that northward movement. The line between whether or not Eta is pulled into that ejecting trough is very fine. There is some significant bifurcation within the forecast models, with most recent runs of the Euro and EPS bringing the storm to the north until it is quickly wiped out by shear associated with the trough, while recent runs of many others, including the GFS and many members of the GEFS, don't quite pull the storm into the trough, leaving it behind to meander in the Gulf for a few days before finally dissipating. This latter scenario would likely keep the frontal system that is associated with the upper level trough from completely clearing the area, and also would leave the large well of moisture associated with Eta mostly intact and able to be drawn upon for potential additional rainfall into the latter part of the week. Tuesday night is progged by most of the models to when rainfall amounts begin to really pick up across the CWA. A cold front begins to approach the CWA from the west overnight into early Wednesday morning as the associated surface low moves across the midwest. This will allow for a strong southerly fetch that begins to draw moisture from Eta into the area and allow for the development of some light to moderate showers across the CWA. As the cold front approaches the area on Wednesday, it should provide stronger vertical forcing and a focus for moisture convergence that will allow for some heavier precipitation rates into early Thursday. The overall southerly to even southeasterly fetch will also need to be monitored in the mountains of NE GA, as orographic lift may provide for some potentially significant enhancement to rainfall amounts in that area. The cold front will begin to weaken and stall as it moves into the CWA as the upper level forcing rapidly moves away to the northeast. Where Eta goes and how far into the CWA the weakening cold front is able to travel will determine impacts from here. The upper level pattern is pretty progressive with several shortwaves quickly passing to the north of the CWA and providing some chances for showers through the weekend. If Eta is still around in the Gulf, it could provide for some additional moisture that could lead to better PoP chances that are advertised in the GFS and some members of the GEFS from Thursday through the weekend. The best chance next chance of precip looks to be Saturday, where PoPs have been bumped up a little bit in comparison to the blend, especially across north GA. No matter what, these quickly passing systems will allow warmer, moister area from the south to quickly move back into the area, squashing any hopes you may have had of feeling another taste of winter any time soon. But I will leave you with some hope, colder weather fans - by the end of the long term, there are signs of more significant cold front moving towards the area that could finally bring another shot of cold air to the area. Lusk && .AVIATION... 18Z Update... MVFR cigs will transition to VFR through 22z. Isolated showers will be possible mainly across the southern and eastern portions of the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Easterly winds 5-15 kt will persist through the period, with periodic gusts tonight and Tuesday. Cigs will be the main focus tonight through tomorrow. IFR cigs are in the forecast starting around 08z and remain in the forecast through Tuesday. Some areas of LIFR will be possible, but did not feel confident enough to include in the TAFs. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Medium to high confidence on cigs. High on all other elements. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 64 75 68 77 / 20 50 70 80 Atlanta 65 74 68 76 / 20 50 60 80 Blairsville 59 72 64 72 / 20 50 70 80 Cartersville 64 76 67 77 / 20 50 70 80 Columbus 69 80 71 81 / 20 40 40 70 Gainesville 63 72 66 75 / 20 50 70 80 Macon 68 81 70 82 / 20 50 40 70 Rome 64 77 68 78 / 10 50 70 80 Peachtree City 65 76 69 78 / 20 50 50 80 Vidalia 70 82 72 82 / 20 50 50 60 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Martin LONG TERM....Lusk AVIATION...Martin