570 FXUS62 KMLB 080949 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 449 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2020 .DISCUSSION... Current... As of 3 AM ongoing scattered showers and squalls, with highest coverage from Brevard southward. Overall, lightning storms have not been present for much of the night, but an isolated lightning strike or two are possible with any of the squalls moving onshore from the Atlantic. Cell motion is west to west-northwest around 25 mph. Windy conditions, with highest winds and wind gusts observed along the coast, particularly along the Treasure coast. Easterly wind around 10 mph across the inland counties and around 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph along the coast were observed. As of the 4 AM advisory, Tropical Storm Eta is still approaching the coast of Cuba, and is approximately 480 miles south of Cape Canaveral FL. Today... As Tropical Storm Eta moves closer to the Florida peninsula, Eta's wind field will expand northward, allowing for stronger winds to impact much of east central Florida today and into late Monday. Eta will move over the Florida Straits today, crossing over the Keys tonight, and then out into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, where its forward motion is expected to slow down. Showers and squalls will increase in both frequency and coverage throughout the day. Highest coverage will be along the Treasure coast and Okeechobee counties. Rain chances will be 70 to 80 percent for the Treasure coast and Okeechobee counties, 50 to 70 percent for southern Brevard to southern Osceola counties, and 30 to 50 percent everywhere else. Today's high temperatures will be about average, to a little above normal for this time of year, with highs in the low 80s under mostly cloudy skies. Overnight lows will be in the low 70s except in the mid 70s along the coast under mostly cloudy skies. Mon-Tue...Strong Tropical Storm ETA forecast near the FL Keys Monday morning should mark its closest point of approach to our local area. Ongoing breezy to windy conditions with occasional squalls producing gusts at to above tropical storm force mainly along the coast. Headlines for flood potential wl continue across the Treasure Coast and Lake Okeechobee areas, along with some nuisance flooding across the region through late Monday, depending on multiple rainfall episodes over the same areas. The strongest winds are expected to be along the coast and generally from Brevard County southward in squalls. Around 4 to 7" rain possible, and up to 10 inches through Monday night for portions of Martin...St Lucie and Okeechobee Counties. During Tue, Eta movement has slowed and system will only slowly edge away from the SW FL coast. Local rain chcs will remain quite high with warm SE flow ushering deep moisture across the area, with temperatures remaining above normal for November. Mid-Late week...Eta will remain an entity over the eastern gulf into midweek caught up in a rather weak steering environment with some degree of weakening expected. Local rain chcs wl remain higher than normal. The forecast follows a gradual reduction in rain chcs past midweek with warmer than normal temperatures continuing. Local winds will decrease during Tue, but remaining breezy at times. Rain coverage wl become sct by Thu and Isold by Fri with seasonally mild to warm conditions due to Sly flow. && .AVIATION... Windy conditions are expected through the TAF period for all terminals, with the coastal sites experiencing the highest winds and wind gusts. Inland terminals will have easterly winds starting off around 12 KT this morning, before increasing to 15 KT with gusts up to 25 KT this afternoon. Coastal sites will have easterly winds starting off around 15KT with gusts up to 25 KT this morning, before increasing to 20 KT with gusts up to 30 KT this afternoon and evening. Winds for KVRB southward, will increase to 30 KT with gusts up to 40 KT around 00Z. Scattered showers are expected today with coverage increasing as Tropical Storm Eta approaches South FL. Highest coverage will be from KVRB southward, with rain chances decreasing slightly northward. && .MARINE... Current-Today... Hazardous boating and surf conditions. As of 3 AM, Scattered showers are ongoing, with highest coverage from Brevard county waters southward. Shower coverage will increase throughout the day as Eta approaches S. FL, with highest coverage remaining from Brevard southward. An isolated lightning strike or two is possible with some of the strongest showers. As a high pressure over the mid-Atlantic states remains nearly in place and with Tropical Storm Eta at the coast of Cuba, the pressure gradient will keep windy conditions across the local Atlantic waters. Easterly winds around 30 KT across the local waters with gusts around 35 to 40 KT, with the highest winds and gusts occurring along the Treasure Coast waters. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from Brevard to Martin counties. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for Volusia County and will transition to a Gale Warning at 7 PM tonight. Mon-Wed...Small Craft should remain in post with filly arisen seas well above 13 ft and winds to tropical storm force in squalls Monday. Some improvement in conditions toward midweek with headlines for wind and seas continuing over the waters however. Late week...Seas diminish to around 6 to 9 ft by Wed night and gradual lowering of headlines should occur past midweek, with lingering swells the main wave component. Further improvements to open water conditions can be expected the latter half of next week. && .HYDROLOGY... The Saint Johns River near Astor is expected to remain in Minor Flood stage through midweek, with no significant improvements due to higher forecast rainfall. Refer to daily Flood Statements from NWS Melbourne for the latest river levels and forecasts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 82 75 82 76 / 40 60 80 50 MCO 83 74 81 73 / 50 70 80 50 MLB 83 75 83 81 / 70 80 90 60 VRB 83 75 84 80 / 80 90 90 60 LEE 83 73 83 71 / 30 60 80 40 SFB 83 75 81 74 / 50 70 80 50 ORL 83 74 83 73 / 50 70 80 50 FPR 82 75 83 81 / 90 90 90 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through late Monday night for Indian River-Martin- Okeechobee-St. Lucie. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal Volusia-Indian River-Martin-Northern Brevard-Southern Brevard-St. Lucie. Tropical Storm Warning for Indian River-Martin-Northern Brevard- Okeechobee-Southern Brevard-St. Lucie. AM...Tropical Storm Warning for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia- Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia- Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Tuesday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm- Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Watson LONG TERM....Pendergrast TROPICAL IDSS...Cristaldi