055 FXUS61 KCLE 071347 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 847 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley will slowly meander east and push off the Delmarva Peninsula by Monday morning. A low pressure system and associated cold front will move through the Great Lakes region during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Update... The near-term forecast remains valid. No changes appeared necessary. Previous Discussion... An upper ridge over the region is supporting high pressure at the surface, centered over the Ohio Valley. Light south to southwest winds will be expected through the period with minimal cloud cover in a relative dry air mass. The main detail with the forecast period will be high temperatures. Slight warm air advection on the back side of high, along with clear conditions, will allow for temperatures to increase further from Friday and highs should reach the 70s across the area for Saturday. Sunday could improve on high temperature even further with mid 70s possible in NW Ohio. Temperatures in the 70s could be near or exceed record values for several locations and more details on high temperature records are located in the climate section below. Low temperatures tonight will remain consistent from the last several nights with lows in the 40s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Fairly quiet first half of the short term period with upper ridging and surface high pressure persisting across Eastern CONUS. Sunny to mostly sunny skies are expected on Monday with temperatures in the low to mid 70s expected. Some record-high temperatures may occur across the area on Monday. Please refer to the Climate section for more details. By Tuesday, low pressure will eject northeast across Central CONUS towards the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity. South to southwest winds will increase to around 15 to 20 mph with gusts 20 to 25 mph during the day on Tuesday, resulting from the pressure gradient from the departing high off the East Coast and the approaching low from the west. Warm air advection appears to remain in place across much of the area though clouds will be on the increase throughout the day. Highs will be similar to Monday with temperatures in the low to mid 70s and slightly more muggy feeling. Record-high temperatures may also occur on Tuesday, though cloud cover may ruin record chances in some ares. Please refer to the Climate section below for more detail on record-highs. By Tuesday night, low pressure will quickly move northeast across the Upper Great Lakes, extending a cold front across the area. Precipitation is likely overnight Tuesday along the front. Some precipitation ahead of the front is also possible Tuesday evening as some models indicate increased moisture returns through the Ohio Valley, enhanced by Eta. This is evident in forecast PWATs in excess of 1.5 inches overnight Tuesday across the region. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The aforementioned cold front will move east across the area sometime Wednesday morning, ushering in cooler and more seasonable temperatures. Surface high pressure will return across the region on Thursday with high temperatures in the low to mid 50s under sunny skies. By Friday morning, a shortwave trough will move across the area increasing cloudiness. However, available moisture appears low and precludes precipitation chances at this time. High pressure quickly returns across the region by late Friday afternoon and evening with clearing skies from west to east. Highs will be in the low to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... The aviation forecast remains status quo this morning. High pressure over the region will allow for VFR conditions with minimal cloud cover. Winds will remain generally south to southwest through the period. A slight lake breeze is possible for KERI this afternoon as warm land temperatures are expected with a much cooler Lake Erie. Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers by Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .MARINE... No marine headlines anticipated through Wednesday. Southerly to southwesterly flow, 10 to 20 knots will persist over the lake through Tuesday night. By Wednesday, a cold front will move east across the lake, shifting winds west to northwest, 10 to 15 knots. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures are possible at some climate sites from Saturday, November 7th to Tuesday, November 10th. Here are record highs for their respective dates (and what year the record was set) at our six climate sites. Saturday, November 7 Akron-Canton - 76 (1938) Cleveland - 79 (1938) Erie - 77 (1938) Mansfield - 76 (1938) Toledo - 73 (1895) Youngstown - 73 (1938) Sunday, November 8 Akron-Canton - 71 (1916) Cleveland - 72 (1945, 1881, and 1879) Erie - 75 (1945) Mansfield - 70 (2009 and 1945) Toledo - 73 (1945) Youngstown - 78 (1938) Monday, November 9 Akron-Canton - 75 (1975) Cleveland - 74 (1975 and 1931) Erie - 73 (1999 and 1891) Mansfield - 72 (1999) Toledo - 74 (1999) Youngstown - 72 (1999 and 1975) Tuesday, November 10 Akron-Canton - 70 (1998) Cleveland - 71 (1998) Erie - 68 (1949 and 1939) Mansfield - 68 (1977 and 1949) Toledo - 68 (1999 and 1949) Youngstown - 68 (1949 and 1931) && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic NEAR TERM...Jaszka/Sefcovic SHORT TERM...Kahn LONG TERM...Kahn AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...Kahn CLIMATE...CLE