773 FXUS62 KFFC 070105 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 805 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2020 .UPDATE... Main adjustment was to increase some slight chance pops for showers in far eastern central GA this evening and overnight given some weak upglide and Atlantic moisture surge in the easterly fetch. Fcst otherwise largely on track and temps should only cool slightly with increased moisture and cloud coverage, as morning lows will be about ten degrees above normal with mainly 50s north to low 60s in the south. Previous discussion follows... 00z Aviation update below. Baker && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 251 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2020/ SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/... Current satellite loop shows increased clouds cover mainly over South and east central GA as moisture continues to increase across the region. High pressure is still dominating the weather pattern across GA but this ridge is beginning to release its hold over the area. Over the next 24 hours the ridge axis moves a bit further north becoming centered over MD/VA by Sat afternoon/evening. This will keep north and central GA in easterly flow with an even more maritime atlantic influence through the short term. A weak wave in the flow moves onshore the GA/SC coast tonight and moves in across the CWA. This wave will mainly continue to increase cloud cover over the state but we will see some light showers mainly across south GA. Some isolated showers may make it into central GA Sat but they should remain south of a CSG to MCN line. A few more weaker waves move in through the the beginning of next week but they should just keep the cloud cover up with little to no precip expected. The main thing this easterly flow will accomplish is keeping temps a bit on the warm side. Highs Sat/Sun will be in the 70s to near 80 with lows tonight and sat night in the 50s to 60s. 01 LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/... High pressure is expected to be in place over the mid-Atlantic as the extended period begins on Monday. The influence of this high, along with Eta exiting central Cuba and moving north towards south Florida, will promote continued easterly flow across north and central Georgia. Warm and humid weather is expected throughout the extended period as a result of continued moisture return from the Atlantic. On Monday, the surface high pressure center will continue to slowly move eastward into the Atlantic Ocean, and Eta is anticipated to meander near south Florida into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The deepest moisture will still remain to the south of the forecast area on Monday, which will limit PoPs to slight chance to low-end chance at the most in our southern tier. A deepening surface low associated with a strong upper-level shortwave will move northeastward from the Great Plains towards the Great Lakes Region on Tuesday into Wednesday. Guidance continues to indicate that Eta will linger in the eastern Gulf instead of being lifted north by the system. During this time, deep moisture on the northern side of Eta will nonetheless be pulled into the region as southwesterly flow sets up aloft and the low level flow shifts to a southeasterly direction. Dewpoints at midweek will surge into the 60s across the area, with some 70s likely in the afternoons, and precipitable water will increase to 2 inches or more. Because of the deep moisture, better precipitation coverage is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, with chance to likely PoPs each day. In the latter half of next week, model guidance indicates that another upper level shortwave will quickly move eastward from the Great Plains towards the Ohio Valley Region. In this event, a cold extending southward from a surface low associated with this trough will gradually push into the southeastern CONUS. This would potentially lift the remnants of Eta northward into or near Georgia towards the end of the period. Rain chances would again increase with some threat for heavier rainfall. At this time, significant disagreement between model guidance and discrepancies from run-to- run continue to cast uncertainty on what, if any, impacts will be observed in north and central Georgia. The track, timing, and evolution of both Eta and the shortwave, not to mention any interaction between the two, will need to be monitored in the coming days. Warm temperatures are expected through the duration of the long term period. With deep moisture remaining in place over the area through the extended period, low temperatures in particular will be unseasonably warm. Morning lows throughout the long term will run as high as 20-25 degrees above normal, in the 60s across north and central Georgia. Afternoon highs of 5-10 degrees above normal on Sunday, in the 70s across the area, will steadily increase until becoming 10-15 degrees above normal by midweek next week, in the mid 70s and low 80s. It is moreover possible that some afternoon highs at midweek could approach daily records. King && .AVIATION... 00Z Update... Initial VFR conditions, with MVFR cigs building into northern sites after 09z Saturday and a bit sooner for southern sites with IFR cigs possible after 10z. Should have slow improvement into the afternoon Saturday. Cannot rule out an isolated shower near KMCN overnight into early Saturday but chance too low to include. Winds out of the ENE most of period 5-8 kts overnight, increasing 9-12 kts Saturday with some gusts possible near KATL and KCSG. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... High on all elements. Baker && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 57 74 60 73 / 0 5 10 10 Atlanta 58 72 61 72 / 0 10 10 10 Blairsville 50 70 55 70 / 0 5 10 10 Cartersville 56 74 61 75 / 0 5 10 5 Columbus 62 76 64 76 / 0 20 10 10 Gainesville 56 71 59 71 / 0 5 10 10 Macon 61 78 62 77 / 0 10 10 10 Rome 53 76 59 77 / 0 5 5 5 Peachtree City 57 73 61 73 / 0 10 10 10 Vidalia 65 79 65 78 / 10 10 10 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...01/Baker LONG TERM....King AVIATION...Baker