286 FXUS61 KLWX 050130 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 830 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will migrate offshore through the end of the week, with a lobe remaining in place across the Mid-Atlantic states into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... High pressure is situated east of New England tonight and the surface ridge axis extends southwest into our area. Min temps will range from the mid and upper 30s in the colder valleys to the lower to middle 40s for most other locations, a few degrees warmer than last night since dewpoints are a bit higher compared to yesterday evening at this time. A few low clouds could develop near the Chesapeake Bay overnight as moisture gets trapped underneath the inversion. However, the moisture is limited so most areas will remain mainly clear with just a few thin high clouds. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The southwestward extension of the surface high will remain in place through Thursday. Some high level clouds could increase during the afternoon ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. With similar low level thermal profiles, would expect another day of highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. The trough will cross the area Thursday night into Friday morning. For most of the area, there should only be an increase in mid and high level cloudiness. However, a surface trough/coastal boundary will be developing near the Gulf Stream off the coast. Some low level cloudiness may form along this boundary and try to back inland, and while most showers should remain closer to the Atlantic, there is a low probability a few could brush far southern Maryland. In the wake of the trough, a stronger upper ridge approaches from the Ohio River Valley, bringing further warmth to the region. High temperatures should reach the low 70s which is around 8 to 12 degrees above early November climatology. Any lingering clouds should clear and conditions will remain dry. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper level ridging over the Mid-Atlantic will continue to amplify over the weekend and persist into early next week. As a result, high pressure will remain stationary throughout much of the extended period. Above normal temperatures are expected during this time with daytime highs in the upper 60s to low 70s and overnight low temperatures in the 40s and 50s. As we approach the middle of next week, the aforementioned high will continue to shift eastward as an H5 trough continues to deepen over the western CONUS. As a result, a surface low is expected to develop over the southern plains and track northeastward into the Great Lakes region; which will then cause the associated cold front to approach the region in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. There remains a lot of uncertainty in the timing of the FROPA and how much precipitation it brings to our region as a result. Will have to monitor forecast trends over the next few days. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Overall, VFR conditions and southerly winds 10 kt or less will prevail through the end of the week as high pressure remains camped offshore. There is a low chance some lower clouds may work into the metro areas Thursday night into Friday morning as a coastal trough tries to back inland. Mainly VFR conditions and light winds can be expected throughout much of the extended period as high pressure persists offshore. && .MARINE... Southerly flow has been established with high pressure migrating offshore. There may be some enhancement to the winds overnight and again Thursday evening, especially over the Bay. At this time, any SCA-level (18 kt) gusts are expected to be few and far between, so no advisories at this time. Winds will lighten a bit Friday with prevailing south to southwesterly breezes. High pressure centered over the western Atlantic will deliver light southerly breezes over the waters Saturday and Sunday. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ADS NEAR TERM...BJL/ADS SHORT TERM...ADS LONG TERM...MSS AVIATION...ADS/MSS MARINE...ADS/MSS