363 
FXUS65 KFGZ 020922
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
222 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Expect above normal temperatures for the work week. A
weak weather disturbance will deliver a slight chance of showers 
to mainly western and northern Arizona today and Tuesday. Slight 
cooling and increasing southwest winds arrive on Friday with much 
cooler and unsettled conditions possible by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A weak closed low off the southern California coast
this morning with slowly drift northeastward through Tuesday. This
system has moisture available, but mainly in the mid and upper
levels. We have seen some light radar echoes overnight, but likely
only a few sprinkles at the ground. There is a 10-20 percent
chance of rain showers from about Flagstaff westward through
Tuesday, with increased cloud cover. Otherwise, daytime temperatures
will stay 10-15 degrees warmer than normal for early November
during much of the work week.

Friday into the weekend - models are in good agreement that a cold
trough will impact the western United States. Windy and colder
conditions are likely for northern Arizona, with less confidence 
in precipitation chances and amounts. For now, plan on a major
change in the weather pattern and continue to monitor forecasts
through the week as we get a better handle on this system. 

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions and light winds 
will prevail for the next 24 hours. Isolated rain showers and virga 
will be possible along and west of a KPGA-KFLG-KPRC line today. 
Minimal impacts are expected. Aviation discussion not updated for 
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A weak upper level disturbance will bring a slight 
chance of light rain showers to western zones this afternoon and 
evening, and then along the Utah border Tuesday. Wetting rainfall 
amounts are not anticipated.  

Wednesday through Friday...will return to warm and dry conditions. 
Light easterly winds on Thursday to turn southerly with increasing 
speeds by Friday afternoon.
 
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...NL


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff