874 FXUS61 KBUF 020633 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 133 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Accumulating lake effect snow will focus across the higher terrain east of Lakes Erie and Ontario overnight. Outside of the main lake effect areas a few snow showers will produce the first minor measurable snow of the season in many areas. The lake effect snow will briefly diminish during the day Monday, then a band of heavy snow will develop again across the Tug Hill from late afternoon through Monday night, with rain at lower elevations close to the lake. The early taste of winter will not last though, with a significant warm up likely mid to late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... FLow is becoming more nw through the forecast area behind secondary trough. Heavy snow on the Tug Hill has abated as winds shifted northwest. So, we have transitioned to a more multiband lake effect regime with enhanced heavier lake effect bands rest of night. Accumulations through daybreak will be less than 1 inch for most, though isolated amounts of a couple inches are still possible where snow showers are more persistent. It will remain quite windy early this morning. The strongest winds will be found southeast of Lake Erie, especially close to the shore, with gusts of up to 50 mph. Gusts will also reach 40-45 mph along the south and east shores of Lake Ontario early this morning as winds have become more northwest. Outside of these areas, gusts of 30-40 mph will be common tonight as much colder air pours into the eastern Great Lakes. Overall, total snow accumulations by daybreak this morning (including what has already fallen) may reach 3-5 inches across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie, including the Chautauqua Ridge, Boston Hills, and the ridges of Wyoming County. 1-3 inches is possible farther inland on the hills of Allegany County and the Bristol Hills. Off Lake Ontario, expect 4-7 inches across the Tug Hill (again, with most of that already having occurred), and 1-3 inches for the surrounding lower elevations. Outside of these areas, any accumulations will be limited to less than an inch. Winter weather advisories remain over western Southern Tier into the higher terrain of Southern Erie and Wyoming county and also for the eastern Lake Ontario region. Outside of these areas, light snow with the gusty winds will result in areas of lower visibility which could linger into the Monday morning commute. The lake effect snow will diminish to scattered rain and snow showers for a time from late morning through mid afternoon today. The lull in lake effect will be brief as another round of what is still looking like very heavy lake effect snow is possible late Monday afternoon into Monday night on westerly flow east of Lake Ontario, targeting the Tug Hill. See details on this in the short term discussion. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... ...Significant accumulating lake snows possible east of Lake Ontario during this period... A secondary potent shortwave will drop southeast channeling down the back side of the broader trough. While lake snows weaken off Lake Erie, the exact opposite can be said east of Lake Ontario where westerly flow across the lake will make use of the longer fetch to produce what could be our first significant snowfall, especially across the Tug Hill. The only hindrance right now appears to be residence time of the band over any given location which is expected to gradually settle southward over the course of the night. However, confident enough that there will be time for snowfall accumulation greater than +7 inches east of Lake Ontario in the most intense portion of the band. A Winter storm watch has been issued for this potential from Monday evening through Tuesday morning. Some minor accumulations can still anticipated east of Lake Erie overnight but with drier air moving in and equilibrium levels falling this will limit the lake response off Lake Erie. Boundary layer temperatures will also be a little warmer east of Lake Erie, limiting accumulations. It will become very windy again Monday evening behind the shortwave, with gusts of up to 50 mph possible across much of Western NY, especially close to Lake Erie and extending across the Niagara Frontier to near Rochester. The aforementioned mid-level trough then moves well east of the region by early Tuesday morning. The loss of background moisture with the departing trough and lowering equilibrium levels will then aid in gradually weakening and diminishing lake snows over the course of the day. After Tuesday, dry weather returns as sfc ridging builds off the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast. This will not only provide dry weather through the end of this period but also initiate a big warm up. Temperatures anticipated to climb well above normal with highs climbing into the 60s for the later half of the week. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... This period will be marked by a dry stretch that will also feature mild temperatures that could push to near daily record levels by the end of the period. A flat zonal flow to start the period will become more amplified as a sharp upper level trough drops down across the western US. There will be a pause to the amplification...this on Thursday and into Friday as a shortwave passes across southern Canada. This feature will bring a few more clouds to the region Thursday...and may even allow for afternoon temperatures to dip a degree lower than the previous day (Wednesday). By the weekend, temperatures at 850 hPa will push towards +12 to +13C. A look at past soundings for KBUF, the moving maximum temperature at 850 hPa next weekend is right around +12 to +13C...thus with sunny skies will place highs Saturday and Sunday close to daily record values. The one factor that may keep us from reaching near record highs is with the upper level and down to the surface ridge axis right over us...boundary layer mixing may not be that deep, which would keep afternoon temperatures a few degrees cooler than a well mixed lower atmosphere. None the less next weekend is shaping up to be pleasantly mild. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Lake effect snow showers will continue east of Lake Erie early this morning, including KJHW, with mainly MVFR VSBY and CIGS, though brief IFR intervals in heavier snow showers are still possible. East of Lake Ontario, similar story with overall MVFR CIGS and VSBY though a few pockets of IFR conditions are still possible in heavier snow showers. Winds have become more northwest as a trough has crossed the area. These gusty winds will produce some blowing snow where snow accumulation occurs. The snow showers and lake effect will diminish to scattered rain and snow showers Monday morning. This will allow lower elevations to return to mainly VFR by late morning, with MVFR CIGS across higher terrain. Signals starting to show up that it southwest winds are going to become very windy over western NY again late this afternoon and this will be included in later TAF updates. Outlook... Monday night through Tuesday...IFR possible in lake effect snow east and southeast of the lakes. VFR elsewhere. Wednesday through Friday...VFR. && .MARINE... West gales will become northwest overnight following the passage of a secondary trough. Winds will diminish temporarily Monday morning through early afternoon before becoming westerly and increasing to gales again on Lakes Erie and Ontario. Gales will continue into Monday evening before diminishing overnight. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The water level on Lake Erie at Buffalo peaked at about 6.7 feet above low water datum during the late afternoon on Sunday in the wake of a strong cold front. The lake level should fall early this morning with winds becoming more northwesterly on the lake. Later today into tonight, even though water levels are not as high as we have seen recently, westerly gales on Lake Ontario will result in potential for significant wave action and lakeshore flooding on east end of the lake. Thus, a lakeshore flood watch remains in effect. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ006>008. Lakeshore Flood Watch from this evening through Tuesday morning for NYZ005>007. Winter Storm Watch from this afternoon through Tuesday morning for NYZ006>008. Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for NYZ010-019-085. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ012- 019-020-085. Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ019-085. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EST early this morning for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LOZ030. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ043>045-063>065. Gale Warning until 2 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ042-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/HSK/JLA NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/JLA SHORT TERM...AR/TMA LONG TERM...Thomas AVIATION...JLA MARINE...Hitchcock/JLA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JLA/TMA