254 
FXUS63 KOAX 010450
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1150 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020

Mild temperatures, gusty winds and decreasing relative humidity 
values have bumped the fire danger up into the very high category
for much of the local area this afternoon. That should continue 
until near sunset. Otherwise temperatures are the main forecast 
concern for the next several days. Precipitation chances from now 
through next Saturday are very low.

Upper air maps from this morning showed the following features of
interest. At 850 mb and 700 mb, thermal ridges were in place from
KS and NE through MN and the eastern parts of the Dakotas. Colder
air was starting to push in from the northwest though with 850 mb
temps colder than 5 C from northern MT and western ND northward. 
Strong 12 hour height falls of up to 150 meters were noted in 
southern Manitoba, associated with a shortwave trough. Water vapor
satellite imagery, in combination with recent RUC model 
initializations indicated that the trough stretched from Manitoba 
down to the TX panhandle. Some variable mid and high level clouds 
should move through the area over the next 12 hours. 

Winds will gradually decrease tonight as the atmosphere decouples
and high pressure builds east across the northern and central 
parts of the Plains. Ridge axis should stretch from central ND to 
the TX panhandle by sunrise Sunday. That ridge will build 
east/southeast over our area during the day Sunday, with much 
lighter winds than today. So poor mixing will help keep 
temperatures down. We expect highs to range from 46 to 49 in 
southwest IA and 47 to 52 in eastern NE. Winds will turn to the 
south or southeast in eastern NE by early evening. 

Winds will not be from the south the whole week, but from Monday
through Friday they should mainly have a southerly component. A 
weak cold front pushing through could turn winds to the northwest
on Thursday. We look for a warming trend Monday into Tuesday, and
then a pretty mild rest of the week with highs in the mid 60s to 
lower 70s. Tuesday will probably be the warmest day, with highs 
from 67 to 70 in southwest IA and 70 to 75 in eastern NE. The 
warmest readings Tuesday should be west of a line from Beatrice to
Albion. Fire danger could be high or very high that day, so will 
have to monitor that with later forecasts.

Gusty south winds are forecast for Friday afternoon, and even 
moreso on Saturday, as low pressure deepens over the High Plains 
in response to the digging mid level trough over the Rockies. 
There is fairly good model agreement with the large scale pattern 
until Sunday, then differences increase dramatically with pretty 
big spreads shown in both the high and low temperature forecasts
from the National Blend of Models (NBM). For the 8 to 14 day
period, it looks like there will be some precipitation chances
with temperatures trending cooler than normal. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. 

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Miller
AVIATION...DEE