062 FXUS63 KILX 290136 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 836 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 Rain will spread northward into portions of central Illinois as far north as Havana to Bloomington tonight. Some of this rain will be heavy at times south of I-70 where 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is forecast by Thursday afternoon. Dry weather should then return for several days as high pressure builds into the region. && .UPDATE... Issued at 836 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 Light rain is slowly moving north into the CWA this evening; already covering southeast IL and gradually spreading north into other areas north of I-70. Current forecast continues to have a good handle on the forecast and timing of the precip across the CWA. Needed to make some minor adjustments to pop/wx in the grids; otherwise forecast looks fine. No change to the Flood Watch for the southeast 2 counties. Will be sending an update shortly. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 Rain will spread northward into southeast and central IL this evening through tonight as a strong subtropical upper low merges with moisture associated with tropical system Zeta. With precipitable water values in the neighborhood of 1.5 inches expected south of I-70 after midnight into Thursday morning, heavy rain may develop in this area, and storm total values of 1 to 3 inches from the I-70 corridor southward are forecast. A flood watch has been issued for Richland and Lawrence Counties which area closer to the axis of heaviest precipitation that is expected just north of the Ohio River. Pressure gradients between the surface low tracking south of the Ohio River and high pressure settling over the upper Midwest will produce brisk north wind of 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts from Thursday morning into Thursday evening. Expect lows tonight in the upper 30s northwest of the Illinois River ranging up to the mid 40s south of I-70. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 High pressure will continue to settle southeastward into central IL following Thursday's system, bringing a return to dry weather. A strong low pressure system looks to move through the upper Midwest and southern tier of Canada over the weekend, however this looks to stay dry in central IL, with brisk winds the main impact. High pressure and dry weather should remain dominant through much of next week. Temperatures look to remain fairly seasonable, with the most notable cool days on Friday and Sunday-Monday following the two weather systems in the next few days, with highs in the 40s to lower 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 615 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 All sites will start as VFR this evening as high clouds cover PIA and BMI, and lower clouds around 4kft cover SPI/DEC/CMI. These conditions will remain through the evening hours with precip moving into the area of SPI/DEC/CMI. Will start as VCSH and then become predominate light rain around midnight. PIA will not see pcpn and BMI will just have VCSH for a few hours in the early morning. Light rain will continue at SPI/DEC/CMI during the early morning hours and then go back to VCSH as the system quickly pushes to the east. The VCSH will continue til around noon, but DEC will continue into the afternoon. All sites will see MVFR cigs around 2.5kft advect in during the morning hours. Thinking 15z at BMI, 16z at PIA, 17z at SPI and DEC, and 18z at CMI. These MVFR cigs will remain over all sites through the afternoon. Winds will be light and variable into the overnight hours, but then northerly winds will begin to pick up in speed with gusts of 22-24kts possible from late morning through afternoon. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for ILZ072-073. && $$ UPDATE...Auten SYNOPSIS...37 SHORT TERM...37 LONG TERM...37 AVIATION...Auten