777 FXUS65 KABQ 271815 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1215 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2020 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE With the upper low moving slowly eastward across southern NM today, northwest areas will continue to see decreasing coverage and intensity of snowfall. Moisture wrapping around the system will continue to keep other areas active with snow through the TAF period, except the central valley and western mountains which should see snow taper off around midnight (but low clouds should persist). There will be a few pockets of brief flight category improvement this afternoon as the system entrains some dry air aloft, but the east should be completely socked in with snow, areas of freezing fog, and low clouds tonight. 44 && .PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM MDT Tue Oct 27 2020... .SYNOPSIS... More record cold and snowfall today through Wednesday. Snow will gradually begin to taper off over far western NM today, and through the RGV tonight. The eastern plains will see the last snow through the day Wednesday. There could be a little bit of freezing rain in the far southeast CWA this morning. Thursday through next Tuesday will be dry with moderating temperatures, but most locations will not reach normal temperatures until early next week. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... A sub 550dm H5 closed low is centered over south-central AZ while a surface front through eastern NM has surged further south and west through the RGV and western NM. A couple of snow bands are still flowing northward up the RGV and surrounding terrain, while more sporadic snow hits and misses spots across the eastern plains. Forecast sounding profiles over southeastern NM to include Roswell show only a slight chance for freezing rain potential remaining this morning, with warmer southwest flow aloft still overriding a far colder boundary layer. But the warm tongue is only a tad above freezing, modeled to steadily fall below freezing through today as the low shifts eastward into NM. Thus, only have mention of slight chance for freezing rain in Chaves and Roosevelt Counties this morning and snow thereafter. High Pops continue across the eastern plains with snow bands continuing to favor the eastern periphery of the closed low, while PoPs begin to taper off near the AZ the border later today. The NAM12 shows a unique SW/NE tilt to the cyclonic pressure field and circulation this afternoon, somewhat shutting down snow production over the eastern plains with wrap around moisture getting cut off over western NM. The last few rounds of the HRRR also show this relative downtick in precipitation activity for this afternoon. Despite, this have kept high PoPs through the period, but have left in WPC's little lull in QPF over the eastern plains relative to the time periods before and after. Will need to watch this during the day shift as it could effect forecast snow amounts over the eastern plains. Afterward, confidence is high for another round of snow to enter into southeastern NM Tuesday night, with this moisture wrapping around to the north and northwestern periphery of the low early Wednesday. While the weather clears out over western NM, snow continues across the eastern plains. Models are showing a clear dry slot intrusion into the southern and eastern side of the low by Wednesday morning as the center tracks into the TX Panhandle. This helps set up the last act of snow over the northeastern plains through Wednesday, gradually shifting eastward to the TX/OK borders. Much of the snow for this event across the eastern plains will fall during this time frame, with amounts ranging from 6 to 12 inches. Although it appears winter advisories/warnings across the west may come to an end a bit earlier, will keep the winter highlights as they are for this package. LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... The snow in the east Wednesday night will diminish and end by daybreak Thursday. Dry weather will return to all the forecast area Thursday, which will continue through early next week. In recent weeks the temperatures have sky rocketed back above normal after a chilly spell. But this will not be the case with this current blast of cold air. Highs will struggle to climb during the days, especially valley locations where light winds may keep the temperature inversion from breaking. At least there should be plenty of sunshine each day. A weak back door cold front could drop south through the eastern plains Saturday but with little impact to the sensible forecast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Widespread snow event and record cold continues today, lingering through eastern NM Wednesday. No fire weather concerns. The weather clears out completely by Thursday with a gradual warming trend through the weekend. Remnant snow will likely linger for several days in north facing shaded and sheltered areas. && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Wednesday for the following zones... NMZ212>215-221>240. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Wednesday for the following zones... NMZ203>211-216>219-241. Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Wednesday for the following zones... NMZ220. && $$