616 
FXUS63 KFGF 231956
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
256 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

Impacts tonight is the cold. How cold will we get is the main
question. Center of high pressure and driest airmass and lightest
winds will slide from far western ND into western and central SD
tonight. This will mean our area remains in a light westerly
gradient for winds. So overall dont expect a widespread drop to
calm conditions. That said the big thing going for the lower
temperatures is snow cover which is quite deep in the southern
fcst area with widespread 4 to 8 inch depth far SE ND into WC MN.
And skies overall should be pretty clear tonight once the CU
dissipates for most areas. Low temperatures tonight will likely be
quite variable as low lying locations that may drop to near calm
radiate out with lows in the single digits vs other areas where
some wind remains esp in NE ND and NW MN farther away ffrom the
high hold in the teens.  

Saturday will start of mostly sunny then increasing clouds esp SE
ND as mid level moisture moves in ahead of next system dropping
south along the front range. 

Saturday night will see moisture from the system dropping along
the front range streaking east along the ND/SD border but it will
run into a very dry airmass into SE ND/WC MN. Track of the system
remains more south than east, and therefore chances for any snow
will in the far south fcst area keeps getting lower. No impacts
now anticipated for our forecast area as snowfall fcst for our far
south along the SD border only now total a couple tenths. And it
may well become zero.  


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020


The long term period will consist of quiet weather, with well below 
normal temperatures through mid week next week. Chances of 
precipitation remain low throughout the period as of now.

An upper level trough will swing through the area on Sunday night, 
but before it can pass through the northern plains, it will usher in 
winter weather to our south. Worst case scenario would bring less 
than an inch of snowfall as far north as Cass county, but we are 
seeing more indications in the ensembles for this to be mostly a 
South Dakota affair with less than half an inch of accumulation 
right along the ND/SD border and east. Confidence is growing in this 
solution as the members begin to agree on the location and amount of 
snowfall here in the Red River Valley being little to nothing. 
Despite this, confidence is still relatively low.

That does not excuse us from bitter cold conditions however. We will 
start the work week with highs well below the freezing mark for your 
Monday morning. A slow warm up will be in the works though, as a 
surface high moves to our south, shifting our winds to be more 
westerly then southerly as we head into Halloween weekend. This aids 
in advecting warmer air into the area, and our 850mb temperatures 
will slowly begin to warm from the negative teens to closer to zero 
as well. By the time we get to Friday, we should be closer to the 
40s for highs, which is more seasonable than 20s. Minimal chances 
for precip exist this period except for the aforementioned weekend 
system, so expect drier conditions for this coming week than we had 
last week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

VFR is anticipated at most sites thru the pd. CU field develolping
with the sun is around the 2500-3500 ft agl range and therefore a
few sites may briefly become BKN into the MVFR range this aftn.
WNW wind 10-20 kts diminishing after dark. 


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$

SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...AK/Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle