189 FXUS62 KKEY 231425 CCA AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Key West FL 1025 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2020 .DISCUSSION... Currently - A broken band of showers extends from the Gulf waters surrounding the Dry Tortugas, east southeast across the distant Florida Straits south of the Middle Keys. These showers seem to be struggling over the last couple of hours and radar trend shows the coverage diminishing. Elsewhere across the Keys, a much different picture than 24 hours ago with full sunshine across the Middle and Upper Keys and partly cloudy skies for the Lower Keys. The area remains wedge between a broad area of low pressure to our south and southwest and a continental high anchored along the Eastern Seaboard. This is keeping winds out of the east and southeast across the region. Drier air along the western North Atlantic is edging south and west across the Bahamas and beginning to reach our area. It is currently south of Cuba producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms for the Cayman Islands and Jamaica. Short Term Update - Made changes to the going forecast for today as rain chances do not look as good as before. There is a sharp moisture gradient across the Florida Keys. The best moisture lays across and to the west of the Lower Keys. Dry air is nosing in from the Bahamas and is quite evident on visible satellite as well as satellite derived precipitable water products. Therefore, have lowered pops to chance for the Lower and Middle Keys (30 to 50 percent) and slight chance (20 percent) for the Upper Keys. Otherwise have made no changes to the rest of the forecast. Regarding the tropical feature to our south, NHC is monitoring said broad area of low pressure. There is still uncertainty on timing and track but there is about a 50 percent chance of this broad area consolidating into a tropical depression within the next few days. It is forecasted to trek northwest over the next couple of days. Regardless of development, local impacts will be the potential for heavy rain and localized flooding along with gusty winds from passing showers and thunderstorms. Drier weather is still on tap by early next week as high pressure builds in across the Gulf of Mexico and FL Peninsula. && .MARINE... Winds have not just fallen to a point where the Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) headlines can be dropped. Therefore SCEC headlines will persist into the afternoon with the exception of the Florida Bay. Breezes over these waters should diminish. SCEC headlines will likely continue into the overnight as the gradient across the area remains tightened between a weak area of low pressure just east of the Yucatan Peninsula and a ridge of high pressure east of the Appalachians. A general slackening in breezes expected Saturday and beyond. && .AVIATION... Other than a brief MVFR ceiling and visibility from a passing shower at KEYW, VFR conditions are expected today at both KEYW and KMTH today as drier air has managed to work sufficiently westward, reducing the coverage and intensity of showers temporarily. Surface winds will continue from the east at 10 to 14 knots with gusts 17 to 20 knots. Winds off the deck around around FL020 were observed at 105 deg. 25 knots this morning, and should continue throughout the day. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....JR Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest