877 
FXUS63 KSGF 230457 AAA
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1157 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...06Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020

Its a breezy and unseasonable warm afternoon across southeast Kansas 
and the Missouri Ozarks. Under lots of sun, temperatures have warmed 
well into the 80s. Meanwhile to the west, a cold front extended 
across Kansas into Iowa. This front will be the main weather maker 
tonight into Friday. After a quiet evening, the front will shift 
into southeast Kansas around midnight tonight and then across then 
make steady progress eastward exiting the eastern Ozarks around 
midday. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected along and 
behind the front. A large spread of temperatures are expected both 
tonight and Friday. Lows tonight will range from around 40 over 
southeast Kansas to the lower 60s over far south central Missouri. 
Highs on Friday will not rebound much across the far northwestern 
counties, while south central Missouri will have highs in the 
morning followed by falling temperatures. The showers and storms 
will taper off by latte in the afternoon. 

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020

Friday night and Saturday look to be quiet, cloudy and cool as a 
broad area of high pressure moves across the Upper Mississippi River 
valley region and extends its influence southward into Missouri. 
Overnight lows will range form the mid 30s in central Missouri to 
around 40 over south central Missouri, while highs on Saturday top 
off in the 50s. It may be a struggle for some locations in central 
Missouri to make it to 50.

On Sunday, southwest upper flow returns to the area ahead an 
approaching shortwave and its associated cold front. A modest low 
level jet looks to increase moisture ahead of the system resulting 
in showers and a few thunderstorms once again. Temperatures will be 
a little warmer with highs back into upper 50s to middle 60s.

The front will move through the area Sunday night and this will 
usher in much cooler weather to the region. Models continue to 
generate overrunning precipitation across the area Monday and 
Tuesday. With the colder air will certainly have to keep an eye on 
the potential for a wintry mix and this far out precipitation type is 
difficult to ascertain. Climatologically speaking its rare to have 
impactful winter weather this early, but certainly not out of the 
question. At this point we are not expecting anything impactful. 
Looks for highs mainly in the 40s and lows in the 30s and perhaps 
some upper 20s.

By Tuesday night and all the way through Thursday the deep trough 
over the central Conus will develop a cut off low over Oklahoma and 
Texas and then shift into Arkansas by Thursday. This will keep rain 
chances in the forecast, with a slight upward trend in temperatures 
with highs in the 50s and lows in the mid and upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020

The TAF period will start out VFR with southerly winds however a 
cold front will move into the sites between 09-12Z. This will
bring a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms along with
IFR ceilings and gusty northwest winds. Ceilings will continue in
the IFR/MVFR range for most of Friday, with improving conditions
by Friday night. 

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Burchfield