546 
FXUS64 KMEG 200814
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
314 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Currently...A quasi-stationary front is located from the TN River
Valley to the Memphis metro into central AR this morning. Low 
clouds and scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms prevail north 
of the front with mild air and partly cloudy skies south. 

Today...Expect a few showers and thunderstorms early this morning
before the front lifts north as a warm front. Sunshine will be on
the increase and temps will climb to the lower 80s across much of
the Mid-South save NE AR where temps should remain in the 70s. 

Tonight through Thursday night...Upper ridging, above normal 
temperatures and sunshine will dominate. Highs will be in the 
lower 80s with lows in the 60s. 

Friday and Friday night...A cold front will approach the region 
along with an upper level disturbance bringing chances for 
showers and thunderstorms. Temps will remain quite mild ahead of 
the front with highs in the lower 80s once again. 

The weekend...Latest blends continue to show a dry forecast for
the weekend despite model disagreements on the location of the 
stalled cold front. The GFS moves the front further SE while the 
ECMWF stalls the front right over the Mid-South. The main upper 
disturbance does move east of the region so at the very least 
coverage should diminish even if the front is across the area. 
Confidence in this part of the forecast is very low and will not 
be surprised if it trends wetter over the next few days. 

Early next week...A stronger system is forecast to move into the
region with a cold front and associated strong upper level 
disturbance pushing through Monday and Monday night. Expect 
increasing rain chances followed by much cooler weather by 
midweek. 

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFs

Quasi-stationary front remains in place across portions of W TN
and E AR this evening. Latest trends suggest this boundary may
briefly move a bit south towards MEM overnight into Tuesday 
morning. IFR/LIFR ceilings at JBR may spread to MKL/MEM during 
this period. Conditions are anticipated to improve late Tuesday 
morning into Tuesday afternoon. 

CJC 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$