799 FXUS61 KRLX 191707 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 107 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A nearly stationary front across Ohio will gradually shift back to the north as a warm front through Tuesday afternoon. Warm and dry conditions expected through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 100 PM Monday... Moisture pooled along a nearly stationary frontal boundary draped across Central Ohio will continue to interact with synoptic ascent associated with departing H250 120KT jet max through the remainder of the afternoon. This will yield periods of light to moderate rainfall, primarily across our Southeast Ohio Counties with some some light rainfall spilling into Northwest and North-central West Virignia with the remainder of the region remaining largely dry. As stronger upper level forcing exits northeast this evening, expect to see a lull in any heavier showers/more steady rainfall through the first half of the overnight. As the stationary boundary transitions to a warm front in the wee hours Tuesday morning, strengthening H850 flow will likely yield some additional showers and/or isolated thunderstorms, again confined mainly to our southeast Ohio Counties. Capped thunder mention at slight chance in the current forecast grids with relatively meager 200-400J/kg MUCAPE in forecast soundings over Southeast Ohio. Any lingering showers Tuesday morning gradually shift out of the region through the day as the warm front slowly nudges north. With most of the region in the warm sector Tuesday, daytime highs will approach the upper 70s across the southern Lowlands while the north will stay a bit cooler with earlier cloud cover - upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 AM Monday... Stationary boundary pushes back northwest in response to the digging trough over the upper midwest and the generation of a surface low/warm front over the mid Mississippi valley. The POPs largely end as a result of this in the short term, and a warm up commences in southwesterly flow at the surface and rising 850mb temperatures. Upper ridge over the mid Atlantic coast will exert its influence into the Appalachians through Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 215 AM Monday... Upper ridge off the coast begins to break down and the flow aloft turns back to more zonal with an early weekend cold frontal passage, but the dominant trough over the northern high plains keeps the warmer pattern in play for our area. Another low pressure system moving southwest to northeast could be in play again early next week. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 615 AM Monday... Steady rain largely stays north of the terminals this afternoon with an occasional shower at PKB/HTS possible. Any locally heavier downpours could produce a brief dip into MVFR this afternoon, but otherwise VFR conditions are expected to continue through this evening. Early Tuesday morning an additional round of showers and/or thunderstorms will be possible across SE OH, which may briefly approach PKB. With persistent moistening of the boundary layer, IFR ceilings may develop by Tuesday morning, again largely in the vicinity of PKB with the remaining sites staying VFR as overnight cloud cover and warm air advection largely limits the risk of valley fog. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief drops to MVFR visibility possible at PKB/HTS in any heavier showers. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR valley fog possible Wednesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/RG NEAR TERM...JP SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JP