958 FXUS62 KKEY 190237 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1037 PM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 .DISCUSSION... A windy and squally night across the Florida Keys. The gradient between a large high pressure system over the eastern United States and lower pressure across the Western Caribbean, is driving enhanced northeast to east breezes through the island chain. Our KKEY 00Z RAOB sampled 34 and 31 knot winds at 2 and 3 kft, respectively. No wonder we have sampled wind gusts near 35 knots across the Keys this evening, and as high as 42 knots at Sand Key during a rather benign looking squall passage. The profile is moist and uninhibited, with weak ML instability. The westerlies above 400 mb have sheared off most of the tops to the taller squalls, and aside from a couple thunderstorms over the Straits, and one which roared through the Dry Tortugas, thunder has been limited. An inverted trough was identified over east-central Cuba late this afternoon on the last available visibile satellite images. This feature will slide west overnight and Monday morning. This should drag most of the enhanced flow with it, although windy and squally weather will persist. We have retained the 70% rain chances for the overnight period, and no further updates are needed at this time. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory in effect for all coastal waters of the Florida Keys due to northeast to east winds 20 to 25 knots, with occasional gusts near 30 knots. Also, due to the extremely high tides, boaters should lower biminis and antennae, and approach fixed bridges at the safest navigable speed, noting that clearance beneath bridges will be reduced. From synopsis, an expansive high pressure ridge will remain across the eastern third of the United States. Meanwhile, a broad area of lower pressure will linger across Cuba, the Western Caribbean, and the Yucatan Channel. Fresh to occasionally strong northeast to east breezes will peak and lull through the next five days. && .AVIATION... VFR, gusty northeast to east breezes, and occasional squalls will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals. Brief MVFR VIS and CIGS, and easterly convective wind gusts near 30 knots will accompany the squalls. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 79 86 78 87 / 70 70 70 50 Marathon 79 86 78 87 / 70 70 70 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory for FLZ076. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...CLR Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest