085 FXUS61 KBTV 180741 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 341 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Mild and breezy weather with periods of showers, especially Monday through Wednesday, is expected through much of the upcoming week. A frontal boundary will waver through mainly northern parts of the area, with southerly winds ushering in warm air. Temperatures will be mainly in the 50s and 60s during the day and 30s and 40s at night, with warmer conditions favored late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 340 AM EDT Sunday...Mainly quiet weather is anticipated for today as surface high pressure lifts northeast of the region. A cold front approaches from the west and increase in clouds is expected this afternoon especially in Northern New York. Fog that has formed in eastern Vermont this morning will lift by about 9 am or so. Maximum temperatures will reach the mid 50s to lower 60s with southerly flow in place. Winds will gust on Lake Champlain to about 35 mph this afternoon. Across Northern New York winds will gust to about 25 mph. Southerly flow continues into the overnight hours ahead of approaching front which will finally reach the western edge of our CWA by early Monday morning. Will also have increasing clouds overnight, keeping temperatures pretty mild for the latter half of October. Min temps across Northern New York and into the Champlain valley will hover in the 40s, while some temperatures in the 30s are expected in areas East of the Greens which will be a bit more sheltered from the winds and may still have some lingering clear skies at the very start of the overnight period allowing temperatures to drop pretty quickly in that area before rising during the second half of the overnight. During the daylight hours on Monday will have cold frontal passage take place from west to east across our area. Although not a very strong surface front, we will see some scattered light rain showers along and ahead of the front. Have likely pops mentioned across most of the area. High temperatures on Monday will range through the 50s, warmest in the Champlain valley. Rainfall totals will range from just a few hundredths in southeastern Vermont to about a quarter of an inch in the St Lawrence valley. This surface front lacks any deep low and mid level moisture. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...A weak cold front is expected to stall across northern New York and northern Vermont Monday night and will begin to lift north as a warm front throughout the day on Tuesday. A decent push of isentropic ascent along the frontal boundary is expected to yield scattered to numerous rain showers through the night on Monday into Tuesday morning before the front lifts north of the International Border. An upper level disturbance is expected to track across Lake Ontario Tuesday late morning and afternoon which will bring another good shot of rainfall to northern New York (mainly the St. Lawrence Valley). Better surface convergence and moisture feeding off the lake should yield some better rainfall but rainfall totals will remain well below a quarter of an inch. This disturbance will quickly track to the northeast throughout the afternoon hours with surface high pressure developing in the wake of the disturbance allowing for a break in precipitation Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...The period of active weather continues on Wednesday with another strong wind event expected across the region. The high pressure system from Tuesday night will quickly exit eastward Wednesday morning while pressure falls are expected across the Great Lakes region as a surface low quickly spins up. This low is expected to track to our north and west, which has been the case with many lows this past month, and looks to bring another strong low level jet over the region. Depending on your model of choice, we could see a 925 mb jet anywhere from 40-55 knots and an 850 mb jet of 50 to 65 knots. The nose of this low level jet is expected to move over the north country during peak heating and models soundings look promising to see these stronger winds make it down to the surface as wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph. The strongest winds will likely occur across the St. Lawrence Valley, the northern slopes of the Adirondacks and the northern Champlain Valley as the south/southwest winds channel up the valleys and downslope off the aforementioned higher terrain. We will once again be on the tail end of a cold front which could bring some rain to the far northern reaches of our forecast area but most places should remain dry. If you are a fan of warmer weather and not the snow seen on Saturday that Saturday is the day for you as we will see temperatures in the lower to upper 60s. Thursday looks to be the "quietest" day of the week as the gradient winds from Wednesday will abate Wednesday night with high pressure nosing into the region. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected on Thursday as we will see 850 mb temperatures 2-4 degrees C colder than Wednesday. Nevertheless, it's looking like another day of above normal temperatures for Thursday. Friday is shaping up to be a near repeat of Wednesday where we will once again see gusty winds materialize over the region. Winds don't appear to be as strong as Wednesday as the system will be displaced even further north by 20- 30 mph south to southwest winds are not out of the question. Given the system being further north, we should remain dry and well into the warm sector which will allow temperatures to climb into the mid 60s to lower 70s. A cold front with increasing rain chances will move through the region on Saturday and bring back the return of near normal temperatures for next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06Z Monday...VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Mid/high clouds begin to increase early this morning, mainly over the St Lawrence Valley, and these will slowly spread eastward through the day. Light/calm winds overnight will turn to the south after 12z today and pick up to around 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt after 14z. Have added in TEMPO group for MPV for some fog formation between 08-12z. Outlook... Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: MVFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: MVFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff NEAR TERM...Neiles SHORT TERM...Clay LONG TERM...Clay AVIATION...Neiles