111 FXUS64 KLUB 180526 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1226 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 .AVIATION... Breezy conditions will persist overnight for all terminals. A cold front is expected to move into the region by the mid-to-late morning hours, with a wind shift to due north expected around 14Z at KCDS along with MVFR ceilings potentially down to 2000 ft. Low-level shear will begin to dissipate towards mid-morning as well for KCDS, with MVFR CIGs persisting throughout the majority of the day today. The front will continue to progress towards the Caprock terminals by the late morning to early afternoon hours, with breezy north winds following in its wake. However, VFR is expected to prevail for both KLBB and KPVW after passage of the front for this TAF period. MVFR CIGs will be possible late Sunday night into early Monday for KLBB and KPVW, and this will continue to be assessed as it extends beyond this current TAF cycle. Sincavage && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 234 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020/ SHORT TERM... Gusty west to southwest breezes this afternoon will taper quickly this evening as the lower atmosphere decouples. Dry low-end breezes should continue overnight as a surface low pressure trough crosses east through the area but temperatures will be fairly seasonal for mid October. A cold front will approach late tonight out of the Texas Panhandle, passing through both Childress and Plainview near or shortly after daybreak, and from Lubbock southward by mid or late Sunday morning. Stronger surface cold advection appears will trail the initial wind shift, so some areas on the Caprock especially may yet climb slightly warmer than normal Sunday even with northerly breezes. None-the-less, most areas will see a fairly sizable temperature drop Sunday compared to today and in addition we expect a mass of lower clouds to spread southward at least into the northern Rolling Plains and southeast Texas Panhandle by Sunday afternoon. Wind speed projections behind this cold front currently appear to favor modest wind speeds mostly in the 15 to 20 mph range. RMcQueen LONG TERM... Temperatures behind tomorrows cold front will drop into the 30s and 40s by early Monday morning. The position of the surface ridge well off to the east is forecast to shift somewhat from earlier runs to provide just enough boundary layer moisture to form low stratus clouds late Sunday night and early Monday for most of us, but may linger over the Rolling Plains much of the day. High temperatures off the Caprock would be drastically affected, but right now represent the clouds mainly mixing out early Monday afternoon. We warm up again out ahead of the next synoptic front arriving late Thursday/early Friday. Tuesday through Thursday. Midweek will bring the above normal temperatures, along with breezy winds and increased fire weather concerns. Unfortunately the forecast remains mostly dry except for maybe some drizzle with the low stratus early Monday and then maybe again with the late week cold front. Temperatures should rebound quickly behind the front for next weekend, to relatively normal values this time of year. FIRE WEATHER... Marginal critical fire weather conditions on the Caprock will come to an end fairly quickly early this evening with loss of strong heating and deep mixing. Only modest southwest breezes are expected overnight in advance of a cold front that will cross southward through the area mid to late Sunday morning. No changes needed to the current Red Flag Warning or Fire Danger regions. RMcQueen && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 09