488 
FXUS64 KMEG 180441
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1141 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020

.UPDATE...

Updated for 06z Aviation Discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1027 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020/ 

UPDATE...
No changes made to the forecast this evening. Forecast looks on
track.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR/ 

DISCUSSION... 

Another dry and beautiful day across the Mid-South 
with dewpoints in the mid 20s to mid 30s, bringing min RH values 
in the 20 to 30 percent range. Winds will remain breezy today, 
with higher values in eastern Arkansas. Temperatures tonight will 
bounce back into the lower 50s. 

Unfortunately these dry conditions will not last too long with 
moisture moving in overnight ahead of the weak trough and front. 
Temps will warm up with the southerly flow as well, so we should 
avoid frost/freeze over the next week or so with lows mainly in
the 60s. Highs will remain in the mid 70s through the weekend. 
 
By Sunday night into Monday a cold front will approach the area 
through early next week. With this front expect shower development
to increase by Monday. Models have backed off a bit in its 
southeastward progression, with showers and some thunderstorms 
possible Sunday through Tuesday. There may be a strong to severe 
storm possible, however instability is not as impressive as deep
layer shear. If models continue to stall the front to our north, 
most of the risk for any strong to severe storms will be outside 
of the area.

Temperatures through mid week will continue to be in the mid 70s.
With lows in the lower 60s. Our next chance for showers will be on
Thursday into Friday when another front moves through the area 
but current ECMWF runs seem a bit faster with the front but have 
added PoPs in for Thursday night into Friday. 

&&

.AVIATION...
/06z TAFs/

Cloud coverage associated with a weak disturbance continues to 
increase from west to east across the Mid-South tonight. 
Similarly, light showers (initially virga) are starting to pop-up
across NE Arkansas. Cigs will lower to low-end VFR to MVFR at 
JBR/MEM/MKL overnight into early Sunday morning. VCSH will be 
possible at JBR/MEM/MKL through late Sunday morning. S winds will 
be 5-8kts through the period. Cigs will lift to VFR at MEM/MKL 
near the end of the period with JBR cigs being slower to lift. TUP
will remain VFR. 

17

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$