637 FXUS64 KLUB 170515 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1215 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020 .AVIATION... Breezy conditions will persist throughout the overnight hours with low-level wind shear (LLWS) affecting all terminals. LLWS should begin to diminish after sunrise, with winds shifting to the west by the early afternoon hours for the Caprock terminals. Check density altitudes as hotter temperatures are expected Saturday. VFR prevails otherwise for the TAF period. Sincavage && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 229 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020/ SHORT TERM... Dry northwest flow continuing. A low amplitude disturbance crossing southern Alberta will dip into the northern plains Saturday with a modest increase in winds aloft across the southern high plains. Surface low pressure will deepen slightly and also lead to a breezy or low-end windy day on Saturday along with very warm temperatures. MOS output winds indicate at least breezy conditions developing with mixing to around the 10,000 foot level, enough to tap somewhat into the modest flow aloft but might be slightly lower than a couple of the recent windy days. Tonight will be milder with an increase in low level southerly winds and tomorrows highs around 12 degrees above normal. RMcQueen LONG TERM... Broad longwave troughing will persist across the northern half of CONUS through the extended forecast. Consensus remains strong for us to be dry through the extended, the NAM has a very weak signal for precip Monday morning. The ECMWF has a similarly weak signal for precip associated with a strong FROPA toward the end of next week. The timing of the fronts and the local max temperatures associated with those fronts will be the biggest challenge. A cold front on Sunday surging south mid-morning will keep temperatures in our northern zones in the 60s and 70s, while our southern zones will reach the 80s before the front exits toward the I20 corridor by Sunday evening. Winds will ease and return back to a light southerly component for Monday and Tuesday, starting the week off with a couple of beautiful Fall days. We warm up midweek has the flow aloft becomes more zonal, and surface winds become breezy out of the west and southwest. Fire weather concerns will increase Wednesday and Thursday, as winds become breezier and the drought forges on. Another strong and likely dry front will cool us down for the beginning of next weekend. FIRE WEATHER... Very warm and dry weather is expected Saturday along with breezy or low-end windy conditions. ERC levels are in record territory across the High Plains with drought-cured grass or grass stubs common. Humidity will lower into single digits many areas on the Caprock Saturday afternoon. The bulk of factors indicate Saturday may be a problem day. But wind speed remains a possible limiter with current projected RFTI values mostly in the 1-3 range almost entirely from the low Relative Humidity contribution. We suspect wind speeds will turn out a bit higher than forecasts indicate but would like to see a little more support before issuing a Red Flag Warning. So, we are inclined to hold off on any change to the current Fire Weather Watch to determine wind speeds Saturday with more confidence. RMcQueen && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from this afternoon through this evening for TXZ021>023-027>029-033>035-039-040. && $$ 09