400 FXUS61 KRLX 152247 AAA AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Charleston WV 647 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Strong cold front moves through tonight bringing showers overnight and into Friday morning. Drier, but colder conditions are expected during the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 634 PM Thursday... Sfc cold front has pushed across most of the CWA and is currently approaching area mountains, per area observations and an increase in 88D reflectivity ducting (due to post-frontal stabilization). H85 front is approaching the Ohio River and marks the leading edge of greater CAA and precip development. Have adjusted POPs to account for latest radar trends and timing of H85 front. This essentially delays precip arrival across the eastern CWA...and also reflects higher POPs across the western CWA. Also lowered Fri's max temps a little bit across the eastern half of the CWA, owing to greater cloud cover and continued (albeit weaker) CAA. Thermal profile may get cold enough late tonight and through the day Fri across the higher mountains to result in the first snowflakes of the season occurring. As of 215 PM Thursday... A cold front enters the area this afternoon and will progress eastward, exiting during the night. The actual frontal boundary should precede the majority of the rain which will enter our western counties during the evening and continue through the night. Models currently indicate the line of precipitation behind the front will begin to deteriorate as it moves through the area and total rain amounts should be light. Showers will clear from west to east during the day Friday as dry air flows into the area and high pressure gradually builds in from the southwest. Behind the front, temperatures become drastically colder as Canadian sourced air sweeps into the area. Friday's high temperatures are expected to be a good 10-15 degrees lower than the high today and will likely top out in the mid to upper 50s, except in the highest elevations where highs remain closer to 40. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM Thursday... Surface high quickly passes through Friday night with the potential for a freeze increasing. Guidance continues to lower across the board. After collaboration with neighbors, I elected to hoist a freeze watch for much of the forecast area. While some of the hilltops in the lowlands may stay just above the freezing mark, most outlying and sheltered valleys away from main stem rivers will likely dip just below 32 degrees. Meanwhile, the mountains and mountain valleys will likely experience a hard freeze with lows in the middle to upper 20s. High pressure exits to the east Saturday with strong low level inversion keeping temperatures on the cool side despite afternoon WAA aloft. Low level flow will veer to the southwest and increase Saturday night which will keep any frost confined to mainly mountain valleys with temperatures rising overnight on the hilltops and ridges. A cold front will approach late Sunday as a longwave upper trof deamplifies across the upper Midwest and OH Valley. This will result in a few showers Sunday night across southeast OH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday... The aforementioned front will try to make inroads further into the area Monday with some showers possible. However, models continue to allow the front to return north as a warm front as southeastern US ridging builds. This will mean warmer air for much of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 215 AM Thursday... Clouds will continue to increase as a cold front moves into the area. Rain showers behind the front are mainly expected during the overnight hours and should clear from west to east on Friday as dry air enters the area. VFR should generally continue through the first half of the period. During the latter half of the period, flight category will likely fall to MVFR nearly areawide, though the mountains may lower further into IFR. Breezy winds with 15-25KT gusts are expected to continue into the evening, then become light to moderate overnight. Winds become northwest behind the front and then remain so through the end of the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of rain and MVFR/LIFR conditions may vary from the TAFs tonight. Fog could develop at more terminals than projected. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H M H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H L M M M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H L H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... IFR valley fog possible Saturday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for WVZ006>011-014>020-026>034-039-040-515>526. OH...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. KY...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KYZ101>103. VA...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/JLB NEAR TERM...RH/JLB SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...JLB