890 FXUS65 KABQ 121647 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1047 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2020 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE West to northwest winds aloft. Rapidly developing sfc lee trough/low to result in sw-wly wind gusts to around 35kt over portions of ne and east central NM prior to 13/03Z. VFR. && .PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2020... .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather will continue for the next 7 days as the storm track remains well to the north of New Mexico. After a cooler day today central and east, high temperatures will rebound Tuesday and Wednesday with record and near record high temperatures redeveloping. Breezy to windy conditions will also develop Wednesday with fire weather concerns across east central areas. A gusty back door cold front Wednesday night will drop temperatures Thursday and Friday. Readings will rebound Saturday, only to fall again in the east Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... A rather potent back door cold front that surged south thru eastern NM last evening is still plowing into the Permian Basin as of 3 AM. Gusty north winds and areas of blowing dust are slowly subsiding behind the front. Surface winds will veer quickly to the south and southwest thru the afternoon as surface low pressure deepens over southeast CO. Temps will be much cooler for eastern NM behind the front but only a couple degrees cooler for central and western NM. Exceptionally dry air with this new airmass along with clear skies and light winds tonight will lead to strong inversions and chilly temps. Another unseasonably strong 591dm H5 high will build west of NM Tuesday with very dry west-northwest flow aloft across the state. This will yield warm advection along with downslope flow across eastern NM. Temps will trend above normal once again with single digit humidity areawide. Near record high temps are likely at KROW once again. Guyer LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... Dry weather is forecast to continue under northwest flow aloft as the storm track remains well to the north of New Mexico. With the help of a lee side surface trough south of a ~998 mb surface low in eastern CO, high temperatures will climb around 10-20 degrees above normal on Wednesday with widespread record and near record high temperatures. Breezy to windy conditions will also develop on Wednesday, and humidities will be very low with fire weather concerns along the I-40 corridor of eastern NM. After a gusty back door cold front dives southwestward into the state Wednesday night, high temperatures should fall around 3-12 degrees central and west on Thursday, and as much as 30 degrees in the east. Despite the cooldown, western readings will remain up to 12 degrees above normal Thursday afternoon. Eastern readings will drop below normal Thursday and Friday, then they should climb above normal again Saturday as a ridge of high pressure moves over the western US. After a back door cold front Saturday night, highs are expected to fall closer to normal across the eastern plains Sunday and Monday. 44 && .FIRE WEATHER... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES...AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS... North winds over eastern NM this morning will shift quickly to the southwest and become breezy for the northeast today. A couple hours of critical fire weather conditions are expected from near Las Vegas to Clayton, however temps will be much cooler with a more stable airmass. Temps will trend warmer Tuesday as northwest flow aloft strengthens and light downslope flow develops across the east. RH recoveries Tuesday night will be poor for many areas. West to northwest winds will increase further Wednesday with record warm temperatures, single digit RH, and a more unstable airmass. A large area of critical conditions is expected from the central mt chain eastward across the plains and perhaps northwestern NM. A potent cold front will then blast southwest thru eastern NM Thursday with temperatures trending 25 to 35 degrees colder. Winds will shift around to the southwest again Friday and Saturday with warming temps and more very dry conditions. Guyer && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for the following zones... NMZ107-108. && $$