538 FNUS53 KAPX 120808 FWFAPX Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan National Weather Service Gaylord MI 408 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020 ...Increasing chances of showers and storms today and tonight... .DISCUSSION...Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase this afternoon into tonight as a cold front sweeps through Michigan. Temperatures will warm well into the 60s today ahead of the front... but low level moisture will also be on the rise as higher dew point air advects into our state. MIZ016-017-021>023-099-122015- Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency Counties- 408 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020 .TODAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain showers after 1200. Max Temperature.....62-67. 24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........68-73 percent. 24 HR Trend......24 percent wetter...except 16 percent wetter along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts up to 28 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (180). Mixing Height.......900 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southeast 15 to 21 mph. Pcpn Amount.........0.03-0.30 in. .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) until 2400, then partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Rain showers likely until 2400, then chance of rain showers. Min Temperature.....41-46...except 49-54 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......Unchanged. Max Humidity........93-98 percent. 24 HR Trend......Unchanged. 20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts up to 24 mph. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30). Mixing Height.......200 ft agl. Transport Winds.....South around 21 mph shifting to the west around 15 mph after midnight. Pcpn Amount.........0.19-0.44 in. .TUESDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Scattered rain showers after 1200. Max Temperature.....61-66...except 54-59 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler. Min Humidity........40-45 percent. 24 HR Trend......38 percent drier...except 22 percent drier along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts up to 28 mph. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (780). Mixing Height.......2400 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph increasing to around 24 mph in the afternoon. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in. $$ MIZ018-024-030-036-042-122015- Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac Counties...including Eastern Huron NF- 408 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020 .TODAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain showers after 1200. Max Temperature.....64-69...except 54-59 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........73-78 percent. 24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter...except 12 percent wetter along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts up to 24 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (120). Mixing Height.......600 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southeast 15 to 18 mph. Pcpn Amount.........0.01-0.16 in. .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) until 2400, then partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Rain showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms until 2400, then chance of rain showers. Min Temperature.....41-46. 24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........93-98 percent...except 82-87 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......2 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts up to 28 mph. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30). Mixing Height.......200 ft agl. Transport Winds.....South around 21 mph shifting to the west around 18 mph after midnight. Pcpn Amount.........0.27-0.56 in. .TUESDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Max Temperature.....62-67. 24 HR Trend......Unchanged. Min Humidity........38-43 percent. 24 HR Trend......15 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts up to 28 mph. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (840). Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl. Transport Winds.....West around 9 mph increasing to southwest around 21 mph in the afternoon. Pcpn Amount.........None. $$ MIZ020-025>027-122015- Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL- 408 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020 .TODAY... Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain showers after 1200. Max Temperature.....64-69. 24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........68-73 percent. 24 HR Trend......29 percent wetter...except 22 percent wetter along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......South winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts up to 28 mph. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (160). Mixing Height.......700 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southeast 15 to 21 mph. Pcpn Amount.........0.23-0.40 in. .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) until 2400, then partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms until 2400, then chance of rain showers. Min Temperature.....40-45...except 52-57 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 75-80 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......1 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts up to 32 mph. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10). Mixing Height.......100 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southwest around 24 mph becoming west around 12 mph after midnight. Pcpn Amount.........0.16-0.35 in. .TUESDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Max Temperature.....60-65. 24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler...except 6 degrees cooler near the coast. Min Humidity........41-46 percent. 24 HR Trend......32 percent drier...except 22 percent drier along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph increasing to around 20 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 mph. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (960). Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph increasing to around 30 mph in the afternoon. Pcpn Amount.........None. $$ MIZ031>033-122015- Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the northern quarter of Manistee NF- 408 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020 .TODAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms after 1200. Max Temperature.....64-69. 24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........70-75 percent. 24 HR Trend......27 percent wetter...except 21 percent wetter along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......South winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts up to 28 mph. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (110). Mixing Height.......600 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southeast 12 to 18 mph. Pcpn Amount.........0.26-0.42 in. .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) until 2400, then partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms until 2400, then slight chance of rain showers. Min Temperature.....39-44...except 47-52 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........92-97 percent. 24 HR Trend......3 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts up to 28 mph. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10). Mixing Height.......100 ft agl. Transport Winds.....West 12 to 21 mph. Pcpn Amount.........0.17-0.27 in. .TUESDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Max Temperature.....60-65. 24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler. Min Humidity........40-45 percent...except 51-56 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......34 percent drier...except 22 percent drier along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts up to 28 mph. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1030). Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southwest around 6 mph increasing to around 30 mph in the afternoon. Pcpn Amount.........None. $$ MIZ028-029-034-035-041-122015- Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin Counties...including Western Huron NF- 408 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020 .TODAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain showers after 1200. Max Temperature.....65-70. 24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........73-78 percent. 24 HR Trend......26 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 20 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (110). Mixing Height.......600 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southeast 9 to 18 mph. Pcpn Amount.........0.04-0.28 in. .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) until 2400, then partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Rain showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms until 2400, then chance of rain showers. Min Temperature.....37-42. 24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........93-98 percent. 24 HR Trend......1 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts up to 24 mph. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10). Mixing Height.......100 ft agl. Transport Winds.....South around 24 mph shifting to the west around 15 mph after midnight. Pcpn Amount.........0.19-0.49 in. .TUESDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Max Temperature.....62-67. 24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler. Min Humidity........38-43 percent. 24 HR Trend......22 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts up to 28 mph. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1200). Mixing Height.......3600 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southwest around 6 mph increasing to around 27 mph in the afternoon. Pcpn Amount.........None. $$ .EXTENDED... .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 50. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. $$ MR