515 FXUS62 KCAE 090813 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 413 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical moisture from Hurricane Delta will spread into the Southeast on tonight and through the weekend. Increasing rain chances will be encountered from Saturday into Sunday. An approaching upper level trough and possibly some lingering moisture will keep isolated to scattered afternoon rain in the forecast for early next week with seasonal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Delta continues to make its approach to the LA coast this morning while an upper ridge persists over the southeast states. Surface high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic is ridging into the Carolinas with a stalled frontal boundary located across southern AL/GA. A relatively dry air mass remains in place with PWATs generally less than an inch. Satellite imagery showing widespread high clouds moving over the forecast area and expect this to continue through the day. Low level flow today will be from the east-southeast which will continue into tonight and allow moisture to increase through tonight with PWATS increasing to around 1.25-1.5 inches by this evening and approaching 2 inches by 12z Saturday. Dry conditions should persist through the day today with temperatures being a bit cooler than previous days due to cloud cover. Isentropic lift will increase this evening and overnight as Delta moves ashore and scattered showers will be possible across the CSRA and eventually the rest of the forecast area by late tonight with the highest pops in the western Midlands. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 80s and lows tonight will be mild in the mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Some light shower activity should be moving in over the western cwa early Saturday morning, then pushing into the northwestern areas by late morning. Heaviest rainfall should remain west of the area. As the short term models get a better handle on rainfall for Saturday, it appears as if there may actually be a period through the day where rainfall may be minimal. Do not want cut back on pops too much, so plan on continuing with a chance of light rain through the afternoon. Best rain chances appear to be from late Saturday night through the day on Sunday as the remnants of Delta pass well off to the west of the region, staying west of the Appalachians. Even with the circulation that far west, the low-level flow will be bringing moisture off the Atlantic into the upstate. The heaviest rainfall amounts should stay confined to more of the upstate region, closer to the mountains. Very limited instability through the period, with best chance for isolated thunder appearing to occur on Sunday. Minimal severe threat. Rainfall amounts through the Short term period will range from up to an inch and a half over the western cwa, to less than an inch over the eastern counties. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Remnants of Delta will be moving away from the region early next week. There may still be some lingering moisture over the area on Monday, so an isolated shower will still be possible. A cold front will be moving through by Tuesday, and with limited moisture by that point rain chances will be limited. Dry conditions Tuesday night through Thursday. Highs for early next week should be above normal, becoming near normal once the front moves through midweek. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions are generally expected through the forecast period. Surface high pressure remains in place over the region. Higher clouds continue to move over the area and with a persistent east-southeasterly flow expect low level moisture to increase through the afternoon which will likely result in some cumulus cloud development. As Delta moves into the Lower MS Valley late tonight, some light rain and lower clouds will approach from the west after 03z, though confidence is low in precipitation impacting any terminals through 06z. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Continued and increasing SE low level flow and moisture transport to provide stratus potential early Saturday morning. Increase chances of showers and some possible thunderstorms, and associated restrictions, Saturday and Sunday, as tropical moisture crosses the region. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$