577 
FNUS76 KOTX 081908
FWSOTX

Spot Forecast for St Joe Divide RX...BLM
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1208 PM PDT Thu Oct 8 2020

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 PDT on October 09. 
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A system starts to approach Friday and especially Saturday. Some 
threat of rain enters Friday night with the next system, with 
risk for precipitation remaining high into Saturday. Confidence is
moderate to high that precipitation will pass over the burn. Rain
amounts between 0.75 to 1.25 inches are possible between overnight 
Friday and Saturday. Snow levels expected to drop to around 4800
ft overnight Saturday. Upper portions of the area could see
periods of rain/snow mix or snow. Slight chance of light rain
showers extend through Sunday.


.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. 
CWR.................0 percent. 
LAL.................1. 
Max temperature.....Above 5000ft: Around 58.
                    Below 5000ft: Around 68. 
Min humidity........51 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 10 mph. 
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL late in the morning increasing to
					4000 ft AGL in the afternoon. 
Transport winds.....Southwest around 12 mph. 
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume 
					dominated fire growth. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Becoming mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain in 
                    the evening, then rain overnight. 
CWR.................0 percent. 
LAL.................1. 
Min temperature.....Above 5000ft: Around 38.
                    Below 5000ft: Around 50. 
Max humidity........100 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 14 mph. 
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL in the evening decreasing to near 
                    the surface overnight. 
Transport winds.....Southwest around 14 mph. 
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth. 

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Rain. 
CWR.................93 percent. 
LAL.................1. 
Max temperature.....Above 5000ft: Around 45.
                    Below 5000ft: Around 55.
Min humidity........81 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 9 to 16 mph with gusts to 
                    around 25 mph. 
Mixing height.......Near surface in the morning increasing to 1200 
                    ft AGL in the afternoon. 
Transport winds.....Southwest around 25 mph. 
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth. 

$$
Forecaster...JCLEV
Requested by...Peggy
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2013412.0/OTX
.DELDT 10/08/20
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26
.EMAIL idcdc@firenet.gov