935 FXUS65 KPIH 070905 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 305 AM MDT Wed Oct 7 2020 .DISCUSSION... Above normal high temperatures to continue across the area today and through Saturday as high pressure remains in control of the weather across eastern Idaho. Afternoon highs the next few days will top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. High pressure will keep the region dry as well through Friday. SW flow aloft for the next few days will likely bring smoke/haze back to the area. This shouldn't have too much of an impact on our sensible weather but it will be noticeable nevertheless. Overnight lows will still be cool overnight especially across the upper Snake Plain and the Arco Desert. Some patchy frost will be possible with light winds overnight but dewpoint depressions are a bit high for widespread frost formation so no plans for an advisory at this time. Things change drastically as we move into the weekend as a major pattern change is on the horizon as upper-level trough and area of low pressure dig into the Pacific NW. This will bring widespread precip, including high elevation snow, gusty winds and much colder air to eastern Idaho as we move into Sunday and the early next week. Models have trended a touch colder on Sunday with snow levels now around 5500 feet in the Central Mountains and in the 6000-7000 ft range elsewhere. It will certainly be a drastic difference compared to what we've seen thus far in a rather warm October. High temps in the 40s and 50s can be expected Sunday and again on Monday. After Monday, it appears that temps will begin to moderate, albeit slowly, as we move into the middle part of next week with limited precip as weak high pressure attempts to build back in. McKaughan && .AVIATION... We are still looking at VFR conditions, with the caveat that smoke will be increasing from the south and west today. At the moment, we aren't thinking that visibility will drop to MVFR unless more local fires flare up or light off. Keyes && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will peak today with the ridge beginning to break down tomorrow. Very dry air will remain in place even with this initial breakdown of the ridge, including some very low overnight humidity recovery across the highlands. Haines of 5 and 6 are forecast both days as well. The weakening low moving through the region tomorrow will kick up the wind a bit, and it's possible we could be really close across portions of the central mountains and Arco Desert to Red Flag conditions. For now, we aren't going to issue any type of headline...but it's certainly something to keep an eye on. The ridge weakens more on Friday, but Haines of 5 and 6 remain over most of central and eastern Idaho. Humidity will be on the rise during the day, but still many places will be around 10-20 percent. Rain and mountain snow will increase finally later Saturday into Sunday. Wetting rains are likely for our mountain fire zones, especially 411, 413, 422 and 475 where some areas could receive 0.50-1.00 inches of rainfall/melted snow in about 48 hours. Other mountainous areas will see wetting rains, but amounts will be much lower. Amounts across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley MIGHT push between 0.10-0.20 inches, depending on location. Snow may fall as low as 6000ft Sunday morning, but any appreciable snow accumulations will likely be at/above 7000ft. We do expect these amounts to fluctuate until we get a lot closer to things kicking off, so definitely pay close attention over the next few days. It will be quite breezy over the weekend, but with much higher humidity...we won't be dealing with Red Flag conditions. High pressure tries to rebound early next week, but we may still be dealing with occasional showers across the mountains for the most part. Temperatures slowly warm up, but humidities will remain rather high despite any drying trend taking shape. Keyes && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$