089 
FXUS64 KOHX 062327
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
627 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The remnants of hurricane Delta will play a big role in our 
weather, largely over the weekend. Leading up to that however, SFC
high pressure and weak ridging aloft will continue our dry string
well into Fri. Temps will also continue to edge up through that 
period.

Latest trends now have the center not impacting us later, but the
overall system much weaker then the last few runs. Where as the 
previous runs had it racing into middle TN on Sat, now it looks 
that will not occur until early Sun. And while we may see showers 
begin to affect the area later Fri, it will be Sat into Sun 
evening now with scattered-numerous showers/isolated storms. The 
GFS does remain slightly stronger with remnants than the EURO. 
Main problem again amount of rain we will see. There is quite a 
wide range of solutions to overall storm total rainfall, with the 
EURO being the least. The GFS pushing 1-4 inches, and favors our 
northwest for the heaviest rain amounts, dropping off toward the 
southeast. This is contrary to the EURO solution, and the Canadian
is in between. There is still much uncertainty, as even small 
changes in its track will likely make a big difference in storm 
total rainfall for us. Current thought is still largely 2-4, with
parts of the west seeing maybe higher values.

Sun night, remnants moving north of the area, and rain will taper 
off through the evening. There remains the possibility of a few 
showers Mon but the majority will see none. 

By Tue, a weak upper trough and frontal boundary expected to push 
through and that will also give us another chance for showers/isolated
storms. 

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR with some MVFR fog possible overnight. Calm and clear
conditions can be expected overnight, with a chance for fog
development again around sunrise. Southwest winds around 5 to 10
knots can be expected during the day Wednesday, with continuing
VFR conditions.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......07
AVIATION........Barnwell