434 
FXUS64 KMEG 061724
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1224 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020

.UPDATE...

Updated for 18z Aviation Discussion

&&

DISCUSSION...

It was a chilly morning featuring low temperatures in the upper 
30s to middle 40s across much of the Midsouth. Clear skies and a
return of weak South to Southwest wind will allow temperatures to
surge today. Much of the Midsouth will see afternoon high
temperatures 30-40 degrees warmer than morning lows, mostly in the
middle to upper 70s. Clear and dry conditions are expected through
midweek. Then all eyes are on Delta. 

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 638 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020/ 

A clear, calm, and quiet night across the Mid-South at this hour.
Temperatures are mainly in the low to mid 40s with a few 
locations in the upper 30s. Light fog was being reported across 
much of the area due to clear skies and calm winds. 

Short term...Today through Thursday...
Tranquil weather is expected through this period. Surface high 
pressure will result in clear skies and warming temperatures each 
day. Expect highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s with lows in the 
50s each morning.

Long term...Friday through early next week...
This period will be heavily influenced by Hurricane Delta,
which is currently located south of Cuba. By early Friday, 
Hurricane Delta is expected to be a major hurricane churning over 
the central Gulf. Outer bands will begin to affect the Mid-South 
as early as Friday morning as the system continues a northward 
track towards the Gulf Coast. The preferred solution through this 
period is the GFS, which quickly lifts the hurricane northward 
towards the Louisiana coast through early Saturday morning. Models
do indicate some weakening of Hurricane Delta, but still keep it 
as a hurricane at landfall for the time being. 

With a central pressure below 980 mb, Delta is expected to remain
a tropical storm as it tracks into central Mississippi Saturday
morning. The main impacts for the Mid-South will be heavy 
rainfall and gusty winds. Heavy rainfall will begin as early as 
Saturday morning and taper off by early Sunday morning as the 
system is progged to move swiftly into middle Tennessee. Early 
QPF totals bring a swath of 3 to 5 inches of rainfall to areas 
along and east of the Mississippi River, with the highest totals 
over much of north Mississippi. The remnants of Delta will quickly
lift northeast of the area by Sunday afternoon. 

A Pacific cold front will move through the Mid-South Monday 
night into Tuesday. With limited moisture in place, the system is
expected to remain mostly dry. Temperatures will remain rather 
mild in its wake, with readings in the mid to upper 70s areawide
for Tuesday. In the extended period, models diverge considerably.
Went with a blend, which keeps low end rain chances in the 
forecast through late next week.  

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

VFR conditions will continue at all sites for the next 24 hours.

17

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$