605 FXUS62 KJAX 051157 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 757 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 .AVIATION... [Through 12Z Tuesday] IFR conditions will prevail at GNV and VQQ through around 19Z. MVFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period at SGJ, with periods of IFR conditions possible after 22Z as showers increase in coverage and intensity along the northeast FL coast. MVFR ceilings are expected to prevail at the Duval County terminals by 15Z, with periods of IFR conditions possible at CRG after 23Z as shower activity increases from south to north. MVFR ceilings and isolated light showers will be possible at SSI towards 21Z, with shower coverage and IFR conditions then possible towards 09Z. Sustained northeasterly surface winds at the coastal terminals will increase to 10-15 knots by 14Z, with surface winds elsewhere increasing to around 10 knots by 17Z. Surface winds at the inland terminals will decrease to around 5 knots after 02Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION [417 AM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... The tail end of lingering frontal boundary is analyzed from the western Atlantic southwest to central FL early this morning. Models show this boundary lifting slowly north to northwest through tonight, making more progress northward over our coastal waters than over land. With surface high pressure located over the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic...low level flow will continue to be northeast to east, with breezy northeast winds along the coast at 15-20G30 mph. Mid level ridge across southern FL will also lift northward with the ridge axis forecast to be positioned over Marion county by early Tuesday morning. With this in mind, mean layer flow will gradually back and result in additional moisture advection through our CWA with PWATs of about 2 inches spreading up into southeast GA by 12Z Tue. Overall, not strong synoptic forcing with the main exception being isentropic lift over the region and forcing along the frontal boundary. The forcing along the front may become locally strong for Flagler county and perhaps srn St Johns county. Scattered to locally numerous showers will remain possible over northeast FL and along the coastal areas. QPF is going to be higher for Flagler and St Johns counties due to better forcing from the frontal boundary. Locally heavy rainfall amounts around 2 inches will be possible. Instability remains on the weak side but does ramp up a bit to near 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE later today and tonight from St Johns and Flagler counties as well as the entire coastal waters as the front lifts through central and northern coastal waters. For this reason, will maintain isolated thunderstorms for these areas. Highs today will be in the 70s to near 80, with min temps tonight in the upper 60s nrn zones to lower to mid 70s elsewhere. .SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday]... The frontal boundary over southeast Georgia will have moved off to the north of the region by Tuesday. High pressure will build in over the Mid-Atlantic states as Tropical Depression 26 moves northward towards the gulf states, moisture levels will continue to measure above 2 inches over the forecast area, supplied from out of the southwest resulting in cloudy skies, rainy conditions, and a potential for diurnal thunderstorms. Warmer temperatures are expected due to the presence of the warm front, with high temperatures reaching into the mid & upper 80s by Wednesday. Overnight low temperatures will be in the upper 60s in southeast Georgia and in the lower 70s in northeast Florida. .LONG TERM [Thursday Through Sunday]... Warm front becomes increasingly less defined going into the weekend as Tropical Depression 26 is expected to make landfall in the vicinity of Louisiana during this period. As the remains of the cyclone progresses inland a frontal boundary ahead of drier air is forecasted to move over the southeastern US while the high pressure further to the north moves eastward over the Atlantic. Temperatures will continue to remain above the seasonal average during this period, with temperatures very gradually cooling into the weekend. .MARINE... Breezy northeast winds of about 15-20 kt and seas around 4-6 ft forecast for today as a weak frontal boundary tries to lift northward from central FL into our northeast FL waters through tonight...so SCEC headline in effect today for all waters, with conditions flirting with SCA in a few places by this aftn. Winds will slowly become northeast and then east tonight and Tuesday. Frontal boundary becomes increasingly diffuse Tue-Wed, while weak surface high pressure remains to our north. Winds and seas will settle down to 15 kt or less after Tuesday. Tropical Gamma and TC 26 will be staying well to our south and southwest through the end of the week per latest NHC forecasts. Showers and a few storms will remain possible the next couple of days as the frontal boundary remains in the vicinity of area waters. .HYDROLOGY... Locally heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of Flagler county today and perhaps far southern St Johns county...as a frontal boundary and marginal instability create favorable setup for some heavier convection. Highest rainfall amounts 1-2 inches are forecast for Flagler county through early Tue morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 79 66 78 67 85 / 0 20 20 0 20 SSI 77 70 80 71 82 / 20 30 30 10 20 JAX 77 71 84 72 85 / 60 40 40 10 30 SGJ 81 73 86 74 85 / 50 50 40 10 40 GNV 78 70 87 71 87 / 50 20 50 10 50 OCF 80 72 89 74 89 / 40 20 50 10 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Duval- Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns. GA...None. AM...None. &&