533 FXUS63 KMQT 050655 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 255 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 254 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the ern U.S. with a shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies this morning and a ridge over the desert sw. The trough over the Canadian Prairies heads southeast into the upper Great Lakes by this evening and this remains over the area tonight. Deeper moisture and 850-500 mb q- vector convergence moves through tonight with best moisture across the eastern cwa. Overall, did not make too many changes to the going forecast. Lakeshore flood advisory for southern Schoolcraft county still looks good. Will add in Delta County as well with waves getting up to 7 feet in the bays de Noc and bay of Green Bay from late this afternoon into tonight. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 311 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2020 Shortwave and weak cold front will move across the area Monday night. Tight pressure gradient ahead of it will keep southerly winds gusty over the east half of the area before diminishing after midnight as winds become more southwesterly behind the trough. Better forcing with the shortwave will be confined mainly north and east of the area and with limited available moisture any rain amounts across the north and eat will be pretty paltry. Most of Tuesday will be a pretty nice fall day with quite a bit of sun through the first half of the day and highs a couple degrees above where they should be in early October around 60. Next disturbance will quickly approach Tuesday evening in very fast west northwesterly flow. This wave will be a little stronger than its predecessor and despite the limited moisture should be able to squeeze out a few hundreths of rain for most. Cooling behind this front will be a little more substantial but nothing out of the ordinary for early October. Highs for Wednesday and Thursday will be about 5-8 degrees below where they should be. Delta T's this go around will be marginal for the lake effect process with 85H T's between 0 and -2 C. Thus, will maintain a dry forecast. Warm advection surges into the area for Friday. Recent model trends have been on boards with several days of well above normal temperatures...maybe even late summer-like...for next weekend into early next week. However...the latest GFS run tempers that with another shortwave/cold front passage early Saturday knocking temperatures back to normal. The ECMWF shunts that cooling much further north and east and maintains a mild stretch. Details will have to be worked out in the coming days. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1231 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2020 Under a dry low-level air mass, VFR conditions will prevail thru this fcst period at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. Main concern will be increasing winds overnight thru today. Expect a period of LLWS at KIWD overnight into the morning as winds more rapidly increase above the nocturnal inversion. Building mixed layer will then lift inversion in the morning, ending LLWS, but this will also lead to sfc gusts to 30kt or more. Will likely see a period of LLWS at KCMX this morning as well. At KSAW, not expecting to hit LLWS criteria, but will see gusty south winds develop in the morning and especially in the aftn when gusts up to 35kt should occur. && .MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 254 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2020 There will be two periods of gale events on Lake Superior this forecast time frame. South gales to 35 knots are expected across the east half of Lake Superior this afternoon and evening and the gale warning still looks good. Next period of gales would be Tue night into Wed with northwest gales of 35 to 40 knots. These would be the two periods of strongest wind. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ014. Lake Superior... Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ251-267. Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for LSZ250-266. Lake Michigan... Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for LMZ221. Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...Rolfson MARINE...07