859 FXUS62 KTAE 040516 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 116 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 .AVIATION... [Through 06Z Monday] Aside from a short period of MVFR ceilings at VLD, VFR should prevail at all terminals through the TAF. && .PREV DISCUSSION [842 PM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Sunday]... Broken cloud ceilings are likely to remain with us through the near term period. A stationary boundary across central Florida continues to move northward, associated with the general movement of the cold front that passed over our region yesterday during the early morning hours. The potential for precip is low for the vast majority of our region given the relative dry air near the sfc. However, our southeastern most counties could see up to 0.05 inches of precip as the stationary boundary causes moisture to overrun the cool dry air at the sfc. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low to mid 70s with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. .SHORT TERM [Sunday Night Through Monday Night]... During the early part of the short term period we'll continue to experience broken ceilings as the stationary boundary continues to break down and lift out of our area. In the second half of the short term a ridge will begin to settle in over the region permitting clear and dry conditions. Cloudiness, if any, will be attributed to deep moisture via outflow from Tropical Storm Gamma over the SW Gulf of Mexico. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low 80s with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. .LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]... As the long wave trough moves off of eastern CONUS deep ridging becomes established and will provide a few days of large scale subsidence leading to clear and dry conditions. Currently, global models have some agreement that a tropical wave will be coming into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday with the NHC giving this tropical wave a 60% chance of development. Regardless of track, we may experience some tropical impacts associated with the poleward movement of moisture on the right side of tropical systems. However, it is too early to determine where and how bad these impacts, if any, would be. PoPs are expected to increase into the latter part of the long term. High temperature will be between the low to mid 80s with lows in the mid 60s to low 70s. .MARINE... Mostly northeast winds and 2-3 ft seas prevail over the next few days. Cautionary conditions are expected through Mon night, but winds and seas could be elevated from mid-week, onward, depending on the evolution of a tropical wave that is forecast to move into the Gulf on Wed. .FIRE WEATHER... Increasing cloud cover and the possibly for some precipitation in southwest Georgia and across the Florida Big Bend throughout the day on Sunday will result in low dispersion conditions for this area. Otherwise, there are no red-flag concerns. .HYDROLOGY... Expected rainfall over the weekend in the SE Big Bend is not expected to have a significant impact on river levels. No significant flooding is anticipated through the middle of next week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 76 60 80 65 83 / 0 0 10 10 20 Panama City 79 62 81 66 81 / 0 0 10 10 20 Dothan 77 55 80 60 79 / 0 0 10 10 10 Albany 76 56 80 60 80 / 0 0 10 10 10 Valdosta 74 59 80 64 82 / 10 10 10 0 30 Cross City 73 64 81 68 86 / 80 30 20 10 40 Apalachicola 77 64 79 69 81 / 10 0 10 10 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Oliver SHORT TERM...Oliver LONG TERM...Oliver AVIATION...Harrigan MARINE...Oliver FIRE WEATHER...Oliver HYDROLOGY...Oliver