013 FXUS61 KAKQ 021048 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 648 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will continue to push well offshore through today. High pressure will settle over the region for the first part of the weekend bringing cool and dry weather to the local area. Another fast moving system will track through the area late Sunday into Monday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 315 AM Friday... Early morning analysis shows that the cold front has crossed the majority of the forecast area and is now located across portions of NE NC. This front will continue to progress east, moving offshore over the next couple of hours. Scattered light rain showers persist over western portions of the area early this morning, latest high- res guidance shows this activity slowly progressing to the east but also diminishing in coverage through sunrise. The majority of the rain showers should come to an end shortly after sunrise, though a stray light shower or drizzle cannot be ruled out for eastern portions of the area (best chances MD Eastern Shore) through around 15z. Otherwise, clouds clear from W to E through this morning into the afternoon with skies expected to become mostly sunny (clouds may linger longer across the far SE). Temperatures today will remain below average in the wake of the front, with highs expected to reach the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Friday... High pressure builds towards the local area tonight and then over the are during the day Saturday. Mainly clear skies and cool temperatures tonight, ranging from the low to mid 40s inland to the 50s at the immediate coast/far SE. Saturday should feature mostly sunny skies for the majority of the area with pleasant temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Mostly clear skies to start the night Saturday with building clouds across the SE ahead of the next system. Another cool night Sunday with lows once again in the low to mid 40s inland and the 50s near the coast and across the SE. As we head into Sunday, low pressure looks to develop along the NC coast while an upper trough digs over the Great Lakes/OH Valley. The latest model consensus still keeps the coastal low offshore, though some moisture does get drawn northward into SE VA and coastal NE NC (especially by Sunday night). Highest PoP chances/QPF stay SE of the local area, but far SE Currituck County NC could see around a half of an inch of QPF with the current forecast. Highs Sunday will be fairly similar to the past couple of days with highs in the upper 60s to around 70. Lows Sunday night generally range from around 50 NW to around 60 across the far SE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Thursday... 12z GFS/GEFS remain at odds with the EC/GEM solutions for Sunday night into Monday with respect to the strong upper trough the slides east and across the local area. EC/GEM are slower and deeper with the upper trough, bringing it through the local area between 12-18z Monday. The GFS swings it through about 6 hours sooner. Both solutions have rain across the area Sunday night into Monday morning and then clearing out Monday afternoon. However, the EC/GEM are a bit more bullish with pcpn amounts. The GFS keeps all but the far northern portion of the FA dry, while the EC/GEM would bring 0.1-0.3" of rain to most of the area. For now, have chc PoPs (25-50%) for much of the area Sunday night into Monday morning (lowest SW), then clearing out Monday afternoon. Lows Sunday night from nr 50 NW to nr 60 SE. Highs Monday in the mid 60s to low 70s. Tuesday/Wednesday of next week should end up being dry and comfortable with highs in the upr 60s to mid 70s and lows in the upr 40s to around 60. The next system may impact the area next Wed night or Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 645 AM EDT Friday... Still watching some lingering MVFR ceilings (mainly across the SE/ECG) this morning immediately in the wake of the front. These should dissipate over the next couple of hours and become VFR. Dry, VFR conditions are expected later this morning through the remainder of the forecast period. Skies will become mostly sunny (clouds may linger longer across the far SE) by this afternoon with some FEW to SCT cu around 4000 to 6000 ft. N/NNW winds today around 8 to 12 knots with higher gusts near the coast. Outlook... Dry/VFR through midday Sunday. Next chc for showers will be Sun aftn and especially Sun night/Mon AM. && .MARINE... As of 645 AM EDT Friday... Latest analysis reveals sfc cold front now offshore at 10z. N-NW winds 20-25kt over the waters early this morning. Small Craft Advisories in place for all waters, and slowly come down from late morning (Upper James, Rappahannock, York) to early afternoon for remainder of the waters, as gradient slackens and winds gradually diminish from NW to SE later this morning and the aftn. Winds remain 10-15 kt this afternoon, though local wind probs model showing potential for some gusts to ~20 kt lingering to 20z/4pm along the Sound, so have held onto SCA a bit longer into the aftn (4pm) down that way. Seas briefly build to 3-5 ft N/4-5 ft S this morning, slowly subsiding by this aftn and into this evening. Sig. wave heights linger ~4ft out by 20nm, and NWPS does show seas ~5ft hanging on across the srn coastal waters through late aftn, so did extend to 22z/6pm early this evening for far southern waters to the south of the VA/NC border. High pressure over the Ohio valley builds back toward the area to night before becoming centered near the waters by late Saturday. Continue to expect a secondary CAA surge late tonight-early Sat AM, which will allow winds to increase to ~15 kt sustained on the bay/ocean by 06z Sat. Potential for a brief period of SCA, and expect at least elevated terminals will gust to 20-25 kt late tonight. With headlines currently in effect and with a rather short- lived and marginal SCA surge anticipated, have capped winds at 15 kt and held off with additional SCA headline for now. Should note that probabilities for sustained 18 kt winds remain at only ~10-20% attm (for the Bay) with the 06z/02 guidance. Looking ahead to the weekend, sfc high pressure will remain in place inland into the Carolinas, as an area of low pressure looks to develop along a coastal trough offshore later Sat/Sun, potentially impacting the local area by Monday. Tightening pressure gradient will result in winds veering around from the NNW Saturday to the E- NE later Sat/Sunday, with speeds eventually increasing to 10-15kt (Strongest S waters). Upper trough and the attendant sfc cold front will escort the sfc low farther offshore later Sun into Monday, with a brief period of SCA possible in the Bay. Wind speeds should relax a bit as high pressure rebuilds over the area later on Monday into Monday night. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634-638-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633- 656. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJB/JDM NEAR TERM...AJB SHORT TERM...AJB/JDM LONG TERM...JDM/LKB AVIATION...AJB MARINE...MAM