262 FXUS61 KCLE 011744 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 144 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A trough over the northern Great Lakes will push south today, reaching Lake Erie tonight. This feature will stall over the lake Friday before high pressure builds from the west for the Saturday. A low pressure system will enter the Great Lakes region on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Waterspout potential appears to have diminished this morning. The potential returns later this evening through tomorrow morning as another push of cold, upper air arrives across the lake. Diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms remain possible across much of the area this afternoon ahead of a compact shortwave trough. Previous Discussion... A cold front departing to the east of the region has allowed for temperatures aloft to cool over warm Lake Erie and lake effect cloud and rain showers continue over far NE OH into NW PA this morning. Satellite and radar depict a boundary extending from Lake Erie into Ashtabula and Erie Counties then into western NY. This feature has been the main focus for scattered showers this morning and will keep chance PoPs in the forecast through this morning as this feature will persist and continue to bring rain to NE OH/NW PA. Rain activity will increase through the day as better low level moisture enters the region. Another round of synoptically-driven rainfall is expected this afternoon as a surface trough approaches slowly from the north and a mid-level shortwave trough swings through the region. Believe that most activity will be scattered in nature and have chances PoPs; however, expect better chances in the NE OH/NW PA region with lake enhancement and have likely PoPs. High temperatures will underachieve from Wednesday with lower 60s and some locations in NE OH/NW PA staying in the upper 50s. The surface trough reaches Lake Erie tonight and slows significantly as the mid-level wave exits to the east. This feature will generate showers over Lake Erie and push into NE OH/NW PA overnight. Rain should persist through the overnight into Friday as the lake will provide ample instability and moisture with a west to northwest fetch, while very cold air enters aloft. Thunder is certainly possibility with the cold temps aloft and the lake-induced instability and have maintained the slight chance thunder mention. The surface trough moves east on Friday and residual rain is possible in the snow belt region with favorable flow off the lake. Low temperatures tonight will be largely in the 40s, although some upper 30s are possible in NW OH, if clearing skies do occur. Highs on Friday will struggle even further behind the surface trough and will remain in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Broad upper trough will remain entrenched over the Great Lakes region through the period. Lingering lake effect rain will subside Friday night into Saturday as a surface trough moves east of the region and winds veer more southwest/southerly as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes/Ohio valley. A potent shortwave will move east across the Great Lakes Sunday and Sunday night with a surface low developing across the area. This will bring precip chances to the area, with some minor model timing and model solution differences precluding likely pops at this time, with high chance pops forecast at this time. Precip will diminish behind the low/trough Sunday night from west to east. Continued cool temperatures expected with highs in the upper 50s/low 60s and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Friday night will be the coolest night of the stretch with the building ridge, with some of the typical outlying spots across northeast Ohio seeing some patchy frost. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Ridging will build east across the region Monday and Monday night, with drying conditions and a brief warmup into Tuesday before the ridge shifts east and a broad large scale trough digs south through the Great Lakes. Model solutions are in fair agreement with the pattern into the middle of next week, with a surface low deepening and tracking east across the Great Lakes sometime Wednesday. Return flow should persist into the area through the period, with highs warming from the low 60s Monday to the mid/upper 60s by Wednesday. Precip chances could return as early as Wednesday but will be more likely just beyond this forecast period. && .AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/... Mainly VFR across the TAF sites this afternoon with occasional pockets of MVFR vsbys/ceilings associated with passing rain showers. There could be an occasional rumble of thunder, but coverage and confidence remains low. Rain showers will continue through the afternoon hours, before largely diminishing by sunset. The exception will be at TAF sites along the lakeshore including CLE/ERI where lake effect rain showers will be likely overnight through late tomorrow morning. Impacts include MVFR vsbys/ceilings with an occasional lowering to IFR possible. Winds are mainly southwesterly this afternoon, 10 to 15 knots with gusts near 20 knots. Winds will diminish by sunset to under 10 knots at most TAF sites as they shift more westerly. Outlook...Non-VFR possible at CLE/ERI with occasional lake effect rain showers Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Non- VFR possible with rain showers and low ceilings on Sunday and Monday. && .MARINE... An active period on the lake continues through the end of the week, although winds this morning will continue to subside through early afternoon. Left the small craft advisory up east of Avon Point and cancelled west to Vermilion. Conditions may drop below advisory criteria later this morning/midday that could necessitate further cancellation, however this will be short lived as a cold front drops southeast to the lake later tonight. Wind will increase out of the northwest behind the front 15-20 kts after 06Z Friday, which will likely require another small craft advisory Friday. Winds will subside Friday night into Saturday as high pressure moves over the lake. Winds will become southerly Sunday into Sunday night as the high departs east, veering easterly then northerly Monday as low pressure passes south of the lake. With the trough over the lake today through Friday evening, waterspout potential will continue with any shower activity across the lake. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for OHZ012-089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ146>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic NEAR TERM...Kahn/Sefcovic SHORT TERM...Greenawalt LONG TERM...Greenawalt AVIATION...Kahn MARINE...Greenawalt