697 
FXUS64 KMOB 281829
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
129 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday/...Some showers and a few
thunderstorms are beginning to develop to the west of our 
Mississippi counties just ahead of an approaching cold front and
these are expected to move east across our area late this 
afternoon and this evening. Indicators suggest that there may be a
slight possibility of a strong to briefly severe storm with the 
passage of the front, but this looks marginal at this time. Best 
instability late this afternoon will be closer to the coast, where
1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected (lower MLCAPE expected over 
interior counties). Even with this slight instability, SFC-500 
Bulk Shear over the region appears to be very weak, generally no 
more than about 25 to 30 knots at the most. Also some slight 
capping noted on soundings along with extensive dry air aloft. 
This lack of deep moisture should limit convection, but any storms
that do develop could also produce some occasional stronger wind 
gusts, so we will continue to monitor for this possibility. 
Late tonight into early Tuesday, in the wake of the front, rains 
will continue across much of the area, but will be more stratiform 
in nature. These rains will tapper off from west to east across 
the region during the course of the day on Tuesday as an upper 
level trough axis shifts east across our area. With this upper 
trough axis shifting further to the east and with a cooler and 
drier surface high pressure building into the region we expect 
that temperatures will begin to drop during the near term period. 
Lows tonight are expected to range from the mid 50s over our 
northwestern zones to the lower 60s over our southeastern and 
coastal zones. Highs on Tuesday will be much cooler than today, 
ranging from the upper 60s to near 70 along the north of the 
Highway 84 corridor, to the lower 70s south of Highway 84. A few 
mid 70s possible along the immediate coast and barrier islands. 
/12

&&

.AVIATION...
28/18Z Issuance...VFR conditions early this afternoon, but becoming
MVFR across most of the area late this afternoon and evening as a
cold front moves east across the region. Some isolated, brief IFR
ceilings in and near showers and storms this afternoon and this
evening. Late tonight into Tuesday morning ceiling should be
rising slightly, but remain just above MVFR across the area as an
upper trough swings east across the region. Surface winds
primarily south to southwesterly late this afternoon and evening,
but shifting to the west and northwest and becoming quite gusty overnight
in the wake of a cold front. Mainly in the 15 to 20 knot range 
with some higher gusts possible. /12 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 4 AM CDT 
     Wednesday for GMZ650-655-670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 4 PM CDT Tuesday 
     for GMZ630>632.

&&

$$

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